天然气对外依存度增长的风险管理分析  

Risk Management Analysis of Increased External Dependence of Natural Gas

作　　者：罗佐县[1] 谷屹 杨宁[1] 刘红光 Luo Zuoxian;Gu Yi;Yang Ning;Liu Hongguang(Economics ＆ Development Research Institute,SINOPEC,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]中国石化经济技术研究院

出　　处：《中外能源》2018年第9期1-7,共7页Sino-Global Energy

摘　　要：进入本世纪以来,随着我国天然气消费的快速增长,2007年中国首次成为天然气净进口国,其后天然气对外依存度持续攀升,2017年逼近40%。我国天然气对外依存度过快增长,一方面是受需求侧的强力推动,国家碳减排目标的出台加快了天然气成为主体能源的步伐,大气污染治理及＂煤改气＂工程的实施也促进了天然气消费;另一方面是由于国内天然气产能不足,需求增长不得不依赖进口。新形势下我国天然气供应风险主要表现为中亚管道气受TAPI天然气管道开建的影响保障程度可能下降,中长期LNG价格的回升将导致天然气利用成本增长。针对于此,需要有清醒的认识,不能因为存在风险就止步不前,重要的是采取积极有效的措施化解风险。应建立起以管理对外依存度为主线的风险防范体系,通过技术创新、体制机制改革、开辟多元化进口通道、推进市场化定价、加快储气设施建设以及加大非化石能源发展等举措应对和化解风险,持续巩固天然气主体能源地位。With the rapid growth of China′s natural gas consumption since the beginning of this century,China became a net importer of natural gas for the first time in 2007.Since then,its external dependence of natural gas has continued to climb,approaching 40% in 2017.There are two reasons for the over-rapid growth in China′s external dependence of natural gas.One is the strong push on demand side.The introduc-tion of China′ s carbon reduction targets has accelerated the pace of taking natural gas as the main energy,and the implementation of air pollution control and coal to natural gas projects have promoted the natural gas consumption.The other is the insufficient natural gas productivity in China,so the demand growth has to rely on imports.Under the new situation,the risks of natural gas supply in China mainly include the potential decline in the supply security of central Asian pipeline gas as affected by the construction of TAPI natural gas pipeline as well as the increase in natural gas utilization cost due to the rebound in LNG price in mid-term and long-term.In view of this,we need to have a clear understanding and shall not stand still because of the risks.It is important to take positive and effective measures to eliminate the risks.A risk preven-tion system based on external dependence management should be established,and some measures such as technical innovation,reform of institutional mechanisms,opening up diversified import channels,promoting market-based pricing,accelerating the construction of gas storage facilities and intensifying the efforts to develop non-fossil energy should be taken to respond to and eliminate the risks and continuously consolidate the po-sition of natural gas as the main energy.

关 键 词：天然气 对外依存度 风险防范 中亚管道气 多元化进口 主体能源 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]