延迟退休挤占家庭生育水平吗?  

Will Delayed Retirement Occupy Family Fertility?

作　　者：杨华磊 沈政 胡浩钰 Yang Hualei;Shen Zheng;Hu Haoyu(School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics ＆ Law,Wuhan 430073,China;College of Economics ＆Management,Zhejiang Agriculture ＆ Forestry University,Hangzhou 3 11300,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州311300

出　　处：《财经研究》2018年第10期53-66,共14页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(17EDA049);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71773071)

摘　　要：受中国代际抚养文化的影响,当前部分学者和民众担忧将要推出的延迟退休方案可能降低家庭生育水平,影响二孩政策效应的发挥。文章在充分考虑中国国情的情景下,通过引入延迟退休变量,建立了一个要素内生的世代交叠模型,并经一般均衡推演发现,与退休老人再就业对家庭养老和生育的负面影响不同,延迟退休不仅有助于改善家庭养老状况,还能提高家庭生育水平。进一步采用经历过延迟退休的OECD国家数据进行实证分析发现,延迟退休对生育水平有显著的促进作用。其作用机制是,延迟退休增加的产出和社会资源通过配套生育支持增加了生育资源,进而促使生育水平提升。然而在缺乏配套生育支持制度的中国,延迟退休对生育水平的促进路径受到堵塞,难免引致学者和民众担忧延迟退休政策的负面影响。文章的政策含义是,为发挥延迟退休对生育的促进作用,在延迟退休政策出台前,政府需要规范和培育成熟的托幼育婴市场,并出台相应的生育补贴办法。Due to the Chinese culture of inter-generational supporting,the public worries that the incoming scheme of delayed retirement may lower the fertility rate and therefore the two-child policy cannot play well. In order to provide full evidence of how delayed retirement affects family fertility,this study systematically examines the effect of delayed retirement on family fertility from the perspectives of theoretical and empirical analyses. By introducing the variable of time allocation for the elderly,we extend the overlapping-generation model in which delayed retirement and retired senior employment are both considered to be endogenous based on the framework of general equilibrium. This model shows that delayed retirement can improve the conditions of family supporting for the elderly and raise the level of birth while retired senior employment has an adverse effect on family supporting and fertility. The impact mechanism is that economic output promoted by delayed retirement will increase the financial resources for child support,which finally contributes to encouraging family fertility. Considering the government has not implemented the new policy of delayed retirement nationwide,we use the data from OECD countries to analyze the association between delayed retirement and fertility. No evidence shows that the delaying of average age retirement is negatively associated with the fertility rate. On the contrary,delayed retirement has a significant effect in boosting family fertility. In short,from the theoretical analysis and international experience,postponing retirement at least will not have a negative impact on fertility. One possible impact pathway is that the increase of output and social resources,resulting from the labor supply of delayed retirement,may play an important role in improving the economic conditions of child support and thus motivating family fertility. Because of the lack of relevant accompanying policies to support family fertility in China,it is no wonder that many people are concerned about

关 键 词：延迟退休 生育 家庭养老 世代交叠模型 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学] F063.4