中国居民家庭消费性负债行为研究  

An Analysis on Household Consumption-Fueled Borrowing in China

作　　者：祝伟[1] 夏瑜擎 Zhu Wei;Xia Yuqing(School of Insurance and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京100029

出　　处：《财经研究》2018年第10期67-81,共15页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目(16YJA790072);北京市社会科学基金项目(17YJC039);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(CXTD8-03);惠园优秀青年学者项目(17YQ13)

摘　　要：近年来,中国居民的家庭负债规模迅速增长,而这些负债行为可能为家庭带来巨大的压力。这一现象并不符合经典消费理论的预测,即负债的增加会更好地平滑家庭的跨期消费,从而有助于提高家庭福利;而与中国儒家传统文化所倾向的保守家庭决策行为分析是一致的,即家庭负债是不得已的行为。鉴于此,文章基于中国家庭追踪调查的面板数据实证检验了中国居民家庭消费性负债行为的驱动因素、背后的经济机理和影响后果。研究发现,购买房屋和以购买汽车为代表的耐用品消费显著增加了中国城市和农村居民的家庭负债,而以家庭健康风险为代表的医疗消费和以适龄教育年龄的人口比例为代表的教育支出较高的家庭却有较低的家庭负债。进一步对家庭负债行为背后的经济机理检验后发现,中国居民家庭的消费性负债行为表现出异质性:一方面,负债行为具有明显的保守倾向,医疗支出和教育支出水平高的居民家庭有更强的储蓄动机,并不倾向于通过负债来平滑消费;另一方面,与经典消费理论一致,中国居民家庭更倾向于通过负债来平滑耐用品消费。进一步的检验发现,家庭负债使得以户主抑郁程度为代表的居民家庭福利水平降低,住房购买行为显著降低了居民的家庭福利水平,说明"房奴"压力凸显。上述研究结果表明,应区别对待居民家庭不同类别的支出,并采取不同的信贷政策。In recent years,the size of household debt in China has grown rapidly,accompanied by many typical economic and social phenomena in which households are heavily affected by liabilities,such as ＂house slaves＂ and ＂car slaves＂. That is,the borrowing behavior may have brought tremendous pressure on Chinese households. These phenomena caused by household debt seem to be consistent with household decision-making affected by traditional culture：under the traditional culture led by Chinese Confucianism,households tend to make ends meet,and borrowing is a last resort. However,the classic theory of intertemporal consumption asserts that household borrowing is used to smooth consumption,and predicts that the increase in liabilities will better smooth intertemporal consumption and help to improve family welfare. The inconsistency between the above observation and the prediction of the classical theory motivates us to ask the following questions：What are the driving factors and the consequences of the Chinese household borrowing behavior？ What is the economic mechanism behind it？ This paper uses the China Family Panel Studies（CFPS） 2010-2014 panel data to empirically examine the borrowing behavior of Chinese households. Motivated by the observation that China＇s household consumption debt constitutes the main part of household debt,we employ the analytical framework where house-hold borrowing is driven by expenditures,and linear and nonlinear panel data models to identify the driving factors and impacts of the borrowing of urban and rural residents,and explore the underlying economic mechanism. We find that the borrowing behavior exhibits an inverted U-shaped pattern over the family life cycle,and the highest debt occurs in households with a family head of 30-34 years old. The ownership of housing and the durable consumption significantly increase household debt whereas the education consumption and/or health care consumption significantly decrease household debt. Further examinations demonstrate the hete

关 键 词：家庭负债 家庭金融 家庭消费 住房 

分 类 号：F830.5[经济管理—金融学] F063.2