油价、政策与舆论对出行影响的系统仿真研究  

System Simulation Study on Influences of Oil Price, Policy and Public Opinion on Travel

作　　者：刘怡君 李梦薇 廉莹 Liu Yijun1,2, Li Mengwei1,2, Lian Ying3(1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; 3. Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100190 [3]北京交通大学,北京100044

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2018年第10期3597-3607,共11页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71573247;91746106)

摘　　要：随着城市化进程的推进,交通拥堵、汽车尾气排放污染等环境问题受到广泛关注,合理调整和引导民众选择绿色出行方式,实现消费者出行结构的优化有着重要意义。通过构造基于Agent的二元与三元消费者开车状态仿真模型,重点针对油价调控、政策干预、舆论引导三种影响消费者出行的措施展开实验研究,探索影响最大的措施,以及三种措施如何配合更适用于引导健康出行和优化城市道路状况,并以此为基础对消费者出行方式引导措施给出合理性建议。With the advancement of urbanization, environmental problems such as traffic congestion and automobile exhaust pollution have received widespread attention, which made it of great significance to rationally adjust and guide people to choose green travel modes to optimize the structure of consumer travel. By constructing agent-based binary and ternary consumer driving state simulation models, three measures that may affect the consumer travel, namely, oil price regulation, policy intervention and public opinion guidance are researched, in order to explore the most influential measures, and how the three measures are more suitable for guiding healthy travel and optimizing urban road conditions, and based on this, give reasonable advice on consumer travel guidance measures.

关 键 词：AGENT仿真 油价 政策 舆论 出行方式 

分 类 号：C94[自然科学总论—系统科学]