大同窗异常判定及预测效能初步分析  

Earthquake Prediction Effectiveness based on Anomaly Judgement of Datong Window

作　　者：李丽[1,2] 王霞[1,2] 宋美琴[1,2] 吴昊昱[1,2] 梁艳[1,2] LI Li;WANG Xia;SONG Mei-qin;WU Hao-yu;LIANG Yan(Earthquake Administration of Shanxi Province,Shanxi Taiyuan 030021,China;National Continental Rift Valley Dynamics Observatory,Shanxi 030025,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局,山西太原030021 [2]太原大陆裂谷动力学国家野外科学观测研究站,山西太原030025

出　　处：《地震》2018年第4期142-150,共9页Earthquake

基　　金：震情跟踪定向工作任务(2016010106;2017010112)资助

摘　　要：采用统计学方法系统分析了1990年以来大同窗微震活动与山西带M_L≥4.0地震和晋冀蒙交界、张渤带M≥5.0地震的对应关系,并利用Molchan图表法和R值评分法对开窗指标进行预报效能统计学检验研究。结果表明:大同窗异常活动对未来地震的时间指示意义较强,可以作为判定山西带M_L≥4.0地震和晋冀蒙交界、张渤带M≥5.0地震的短临预测指标;但是大同窗小震活动频次和强度与未来地震强度关系并不显著,需要综合区域地震活动背景和其他测震学指标及前兆异常综合判断。In this paper, the correspondence between the small earthquakes in Datong, the ML≥4. 0 earthquakes in Shanxi and the M≥5. 0 earthquakes in the Zhangjiakou--Bohai tectonic zone of Shanxi-Hebei-Inner Mongolia boundary area since 1990 were analyzed statistically. The window indicators were used to test the validity of forecasting function by Molchan chart and R value score methods. The results show that the anomalous activity of Datong is of great significance to the future earthquakes, and it can be used as the short-term and temporary prediction index for the earthquakes with M〉 4.0 in Shanxi and M≥5.0 in the Zhangjiakou-Bohai tectonic zone of Shanxi-Hebei-Inner Mongolia bound- ary area. The relationship between frequency, intensity and future earthquake intensity is not obvious, so the judgment should be made by synthesizing regional seismicity back- ground, seismological indexes and precursory anomalies.

关 键 词：大同窗 山西地震带 地震预测指标 预测效能检验 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]