资本账户开放双重门限效应与人民币资本账户有序开放:基于金融加速器视角的TVAR模型检验  

The Double Threshold Effect of Capital Account Liberalization and the Orderly Openness of Capital Account of RMB——Based on TVAR Model from the Perspective of Financial Accelerator

作　　者：骆祚炎 孙雨 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2018年第10期18-32,135,共15页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"金融加速器效应顺周期性的多维测度与逆周期调控政策研究"(项目编号:71473049);国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于消费视角的居民资产财富效应测度与调控政策研究"(项目编号:71073030);广东省哲学社会科学规划项目"协同供给侧结构性改革的货币政策研究"(项目编号:GD16CYJ09)的部分研究成果;广东区域金融政策研究中心的资助

摘　　要：文章基于金融加速器效应的视角,通过金融加速器的EFP机制、净财富机制和现金流机制分别解析资本账户开放程度的变动,对经济体系造成的冲击具有门限效应。文章的TVAR模型检验表明,人民币资本账户开放存在双重门限效应:一是当人民币资本账户开放程度超过某临界点时,信贷、投资、汇率等变量对产出和通胀的冲击效应要显著大于人民币开放程度低于这个临界点时的效应;二是人民币资本账户开放程度自身对产出和通胀的冲击也具有门限效应。人民币资本账户双重门限效应的存在意味着:第一,人民币资本账户开放程度当前处于接近门限效应临界点的阶段,资本账户进一步开放过程中要特别注意风险的防范;第二,较长时期内的经济预期平稳是人民币资本账户进一步有序开放的基础;第三,增强人民币汇率弹性是人民币资本账户进一步有序开放的条件。另外,当前加强对资本有序流动特别是资本有序流出的管理,有利于夯实人民币资本账户进一步有序开放的基础。From the perspective of financial accelerator,this paper demonstrates there exists threshold effect of capital account liberalization,through analyzing three kinds of mechanism of financial accelerator,such as EFP mechanism,net asset mechanism and cash flow mechanism.The threshold effect shows that when the openness of capital account surpasses the turning point,the risks of further openness of capital account will increase obviously.The TVAR-Model analysis proves that there is a double-threshold effect of capital account of Renminbi.In order to improve the orderly openness of capital account of RMB,we should maintain stable expectations on the real economy,intensify the elasticity of RMB exchange rate,and keep control of the orderly flow especially outflow of capital in China.Also,we must understand that the current openness of capital account of RMB is closing to the turning point of threshold effect,so we should push forward the openness of capital account of RMB when the conditions are enough ripe and right.

关 键 词：资本账户开放 门限效应 金融加速器 人民币 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]