中国西北地区近50a气象因子时空变化特征与成因分析  

The Spatial and Temporal Characteristics and Causes of Meteorological Factors in Northwest China in Recent 50 Years

作　　者：罗万琦 崔宁博[1,2] 张青雯 冯禹 龚道枝[4] 吕名礼 LUO Wan-qi;CUI Ning-bo;ZHANG Qing-wen;FENG Yu;GONG Dao-zhi;LV Ming-li(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering and College of Water Resourse and Hydropower,Siehuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-saving Agriculture in Hilly＂ Areas of South China,Chengdu 610066,China;Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soft and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas,Ministry of Education,Northwest Agricultural and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi Province,China;State Engineering Laboratory for Efficient Water Use and Disaster Loss Reduction of Crops,Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science,Beijing 100081,China;Shanghai Huawei Water-saving Irrigation Co.Ltd,Shanghai 201515,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,成都610065 [2]南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610066 [3]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100 [4]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室,北京100081 [5]上海华维节水灌溉股份有限公司,上海201515

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2018年第9期12-19,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金："十三五"国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0400206);国家自然科学基金项目(51779161);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题(2015BAD24B01);中央高校基本科研业务费(XSH201604)

摘　　要：为深入分析中国西北地区近50 a气象因子演变特征与驱动因素,选取西北地区69个站点1966-2016年逐日气象资料,使用Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析、GIS空间插值及相关性分析方法,定量分析了气象因子的时空变化规律及相互关系。结果表明:近50 a来西北地区风速、辐射、相对湿度均呈下降趋势,降幅分别为0.105 m/(s·10 a)、0.054 MJ/(m2·d·10 a)和0.378%/(10 a),降水及气温均呈上升趋势,增幅分别为4.9 mm/(10 a)、0.427℃/(10 a);各气象因子近50 a来呈"增大-减小"的周期振荡变化,变化主周期均为28 a,且风速、辐射、相对湿度、降水、气温均存在局部突变;各气象因子的空间分布存在区域差异,风速呈不连续的东部大西部小分布趋势,辐射呈中部大东西部较小分布趋势,降水呈由东南向西北递减趋势,气温呈由青海省向外扩增趋势;各气象因子之间存在较强相关性且相互响应关系复杂,其中辐射与风速、降水和气温均呈极显著正相关(P<0.01),相对湿度与风速呈极显著负相关(P<0.01)。To analyze the characteristics and driving factors of meteorological factors in the past 50 years in Northwest China,the daily meteorological data from 69 stations in Northwest China from 1966 to 2016 are used to quantify by using the Mann-Kendall test,Morlet wavelet analysis,GIS inverse distance weighted interpolation spatial analysis and correlation analysis methods. The temporal and spatial variation of meteorological factors and their interactions are analyzed.The results show that the wind speed,radiation,and relative humidity all show a downward trend in the past 50 years with a decrease of 0.105 m/（ s·10 a）,0.054 MJ/（ m2·d·10 a） and 0.378%/（ 10 a）respectively,precipitation and temperatures show an overall upward trend with an increase of 4.9 mm/（ 10 a） and 0.427 ℃/（ 10 a）. The meteorological factors have shown periodic＂increasing-decreasing＂oscillations and the main cycle of the changes is 28 years,and there are local mutations in the wind speed,radiation,relative humidity,annual precipitation,and air temperature during the study period. There are regional differences in the spatial distribution of meteorological factors,the wind speed shows a discontinuous trend in the eastern part of the west,and the radiation showed a smaller distribution trend in the eastern and western parts of the country,the precipitation decreased from the southeast to the northwest,and the temperature shows an outward expansion from Qinghai Province.There are strong correlations between various meteorological factors and the impact relationship is complex,among which there is a very significant positive correlation between radiation and wind speed,precipitation and temperature（ P〈 0.01）,and there is a very significant negative correlation between relative humidity and wind speed（ P〈 0.01）.

关 键 词：西北地区 气象因子 时空变化特征 MANN-KENDALL检验 MORLET小波分析 GIS 相关性分析 

分 类 号：TV93[水利工程—水利水电工程] S161.4[农业科学—农业气象学]