雷达回波外推方法在临近降雨预报中的应用  

The Method of Radar Echo Extropolation and Its Application to the Precipitation Now-casting

作　　者：张卫国 范仲丽 钟伟 江雨田 孙飞飞 陈娟[2] ZHANG Wei-guo;FAN Zhong-li;ZHONG Wei;JIANG Yu-tian;SUN Fei-fei;CHEN Juan(Ningbo Hydraulic Waterpower Planning Designing Research Institute,Ningbo 315192,Zhejiang Province,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院,浙江宁波315192 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2018年第9期69-73,120,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：浙江省水利厅科技项目(RA1702);宁波市水利科技项目(NSK201715);中国博士后科学基金(2017M621612)

摘　　要：强对流天气的临近预报极具挑战性。随着天气雷达的发展,其高时空分辨率的优势使其迅速应用于短时临近预报研究中。利用雷达回波数据计算其在相邻时次内最优空间相关,得到不同时次的移动矢量序列;在此基础上,叠加前一时次雷达回波变化量,完成雷达回波形状和量的外推。采用SCE-UA算法对雷达回波强度与降雨强度的关系式进行参数估算,从而达到预报降雨的目的。结果表明,利用雷达回波最优空间相关方法的预报图像与实况较为接近,方法具有较强的可操作性和较高的实用价值;利用SCE-UA算法的预测降雨强度,与雨量站实测雨强进行误差分析,均方根误差δ为2.48,相较于利用经验参数进行的降雨预报精度明显提高。The nowcasting of severe convective weather is very challenging. With the development of weather radar,the advantage of its high temporal and spatial resolution has been used in the research on nowcasting. By using echo data of radar to get the optimal spatial correlation of the contiguous time,the moving vector sequence at different times. Based on that,linear objective forecasting is made to radar echo. SCE-UA is used to make the estimation of parameters of the relation between radar echo intensity and rainfall intensity to achieve the goal of rainfall forecasting. The results show that,the forecasting image by using radar echo optimal spatial correlation method is similar to the real image,which means that this method has a highly practical value. By using SCE-UA method to forecast the rainfall intensity of the next 60 minutes,and comparing the observe rainfall intensity,then an error analysis is made,it shows that,the forecast accuracy by using experienced parameters is higher than using Kalman filter method.

关 键 词：雷达回波 临近预报 强对流天气 天气雷达 复合形交叉进化算法 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]