基于信息熵的动物鼠疫流行强度定量化初探  

The preliminary quantitative description of epidemic intensity in enzootic plague based on information entropy theory

作　　者：葛军旗[1] 李镜辉[2] 马永康[3] 龚正达[3,4] GE Jun-qi;LI Jing-hui;MA Yong-kang;GONG Zheng-da(Chaoyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100021,China;National Institute for ommunicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Yunnan Institute of Endemic Diseases Control and Prevention;Yunnan Institute of Parasitic Diseases Control and Prevention)

机构地区：[1]北京市朝阳区疾病预防控制中心,北京100021 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,北京102206 [3]云南省地方病防治所,云南大理671000 [4]云南省寄生虫病防治所,云南普洱665000

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2018年第5期439-441,共3页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金(7173262)~~

摘　　要：目的探索使用信息熵公式测量动物鼠疫流行强度的可行性。方法基于信息熵公式构建动物鼠疫的流行强度公式Ia,尝试用该公式计算8个疫点(乡镇数≥8)模拟数据的流行强度,并对1982-2005年云南省盈江、陇川两个县疫情数据的流行强度进行Spearman相关分析。结果模拟数据的流行强度结果显示,8个疫点集中于1个乡镇时,动物鼠疫的流行强度最小(Ia=0.288),8个乡镇均有疫情时,动物鼠疫的流行强度最大(Ia=2.079),在疫点相同的情况下,疫情涉及的乡镇数越多,流行强度越大;疫情数据的流行强度显示,盈江和陇川县动物鼠疫流行强度最大的年份分别出现在1995年(Ia=2.107)和1990年(Ia=1.642);盈江县动物鼠疫流行强度最大的年份出现在1995年(Ia=2.107),而不是发生疫点数最多的1993年(Ia=1.885)。对2个县Ia做Spearman相关分析,相关系数为0.301(P=0.150),显示2个县动物鼠疫流行情况不存在统计学上的关联。结论流行强度公式能够区分鼠疫疫情的复杂性和层次结构,使动物鼠疫流行强度在同一疫源地的不同时段、或同一时段不同疫源地之间产生可比性。Objective To explore the feasibility using information entropy formula to measure the epidemic intensity ofenzootic plague. Methods The epidemic intensity formula named Iafor enzootic plague based on the information entropyformula was proposed, and used to calculate the epidemic intensity of hypothetical data in 8 epidemic foci（the number oftownship ≥8）. The spearman correlation coefficient of the epidemic intensity between Yingjiang and Longchuan countiesduring 1982-2005 was calculated. Results The epidemic intensity of the hypothetical data showed that the epidemicintensity was the smallest（0.288） when 8 foci were concentrated in 1 townships, while the largest（2.079） when 8 townshipseach had 1 epidemic focus; with the same foci, the more townships involved in the epidemic, the greater the prevalenceintensity. The largest epidemic intensity of Yingjiang（2.107） and Longchuan（1.642） were discovered in 1995 and 1990 respectively; the biggest epidemic intensity of Yingjiang appeared in 1995（Ia=2.107）, rather than in 1993（Ia=1.885） withthe most epidemic foci. The correlation coefficient of epidemic intensity in two counties was 0.301（P=0.150）, whichshowed that there was no statistical correlation. Conclusion The formula verified by simulated and actual data is provedto be able to describe the features of complexity and hierarchical structure of plague epidemic, and make possible thecomparisons of epidemic intensity temporally and spatially.

关 键 词：信息熵 鼠疫 流行强度 

分 类 号：R516.8[医药卫生—内科学]