基于CRSG模型的山区公路风险隔离研究  

Risk Isolation Analysis of Mountain Highways Areas Based on CRSG Model

作　　者：王建军[1] 曹旭东 杨云峰[2] WANG Jian-jun;CAO Xu-dong;YANG Yun-feng(School of Highway,Chang＇an University,Xi＇an 710064,Shaanxi,China;Shaanxi College of Communication Technology,Xi＇an 710014,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学公路学院,陕西西安710064 [2]陕西交通职业技术学院,陕西西安710014

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2018年第9期119-128,共10页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划("八六三"计划)项目(2007AA11Z248);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(310821153402);陕西省交通运输厅交通科技项目(15-26K)

摘　　要：为了合理评估山区干线公路交通安全状态,有效辨别安全风险源,并制定山区道路安全发展对策以降低交通事故风险,采用权重计算的CRITIC (Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation)法与秩和比(Rank Sum Ration,RSR)法的组合方法,建立了输入、输出双维度的山区交通安全风险指标体系及风险隔离模型,对道路风险程度进行划分与评估。基于差距分析(Gap Analysis,GA)与敏感性分析(Sensitivity Analysis,SA)组合法,提出了山区公路风险评估结果的分析方法。结合陕西省安康市山区道路交通安全现状,从交通运行状态、人员设施管理、道路环境特征、事故发生形态等方面进行数据的采集与分析。研究结果表明:山区各条干线公路的风险等级可以较为明显地划分为警告区、控制区、提示区;穿村道路所占比例、减速设施设置数量属于安全风险评价中高差距、高敏感的双高指标,需要重点进行排查,特殊天气与地质条件对于山区交通安全的影响也需引起重视;基于CRSG(CRITIC-RSR-SA-GA)风险隔离模型的分析方法具有较高的操作性和适应性,可根据风险等级的区分要求进行适应性划分,更加直观地显示道路风险分级,有利于制定针对性强的山区道路安全提升改善措施,保证山区道路交通运行安全、有序。In order to reduce the risk of highway traffic accidents in mountain areas,a new risk isolation model combining the Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation（CRITIC）and Rank Sum Ration（RSR）methods was adopted to identify the source of risks,and take regional traffic safety development countermeasures according to a reasonable risk assessment.Meanwhile,a traffic safety index system was established,which was screened and classified from the dimensions of input and output.These methods aim to identify and evaluate the risk degree of roads.Based on the combination of the gap analysis（GA）and sensitivity analysis（SA）methods,a new analysis method of risk assessment results in mountain highways has been proposed.A traffic safety situation in Ankang,Shaanxi was analyzed,combining data of traffic flow status,personnel and facilities management,road environment characteristics,and accident occurrence forms.The results show that the risk level of each highway in a mountain area can be divided into a warning area,control area,and prompt area.The proportion of road across the village and the number of deceleration facilities are included in the high gap and the high sensitivity indexes.These two double high indexes need to be given more focus during the investigation.Special weather and geological conditions should also be taken into consideration for their impact on traffic safety in mountainous areas.The analysis method based on the CRSG risk isolation model has high operability and adaptability.It can intuitively classify any number of risk levels according to the requirements,which is beneficial for developing targeted mountain road safety improvement measures and ensures safety and orderly transportation in mountains.

关 键 词：交通工程 山区公路风险隔离 CRITIC法 秩和比法 差距分析 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]