供应链可靠性诊断的随机Petri网模型及算法研究  

Research of Stochastic Petri Net Model and Algorithm on the Reliability Diagnosis of Supply Chain

作　　者：任大勇 REN Da-yong(ASEAN DPU Institute of Finance and Economics,Weinan Normal University,Weinan 714099,China)

机构地区：[1]渭南师范学院东盟博仁财经学院,陕西渭南714099

出　　处：《渭南师范学院学报》2018年第20期28-38,共11页Journal of Weinan Normal University

基　　金：陕西省军民融合研究基金项目:陕西军民融合装备制造业供应链知识服务网络调查(15JMR03);渭南师范学院人文社科类一般项目:秦东先进制造业供应链知识服务网络研究(14SKYB10)

摘　　要：针对以制造商为核心企业的供应链系统,将供应链系统分为实体类、个体类和因素类3个层级,其中实体类节点由若干个体成员类企业节点构成,众多因素类节点又将会影响个体成员企业节点的运行状况,供应链失效风险将在3个层级间进行传导。在此基础上借助随机Petri网构建了供应链可靠性诊断模型,对供应链失效风险传导情况进行了图形化表示,分析了供应链失效风险在模型各类节点间的传导关系,提出了基于蒙特卡罗仿真的供应链可靠性诊断推理算法,最后通过实例对供应链可靠性诊断模型和仿真推理算法进行了实验验证。实验数据表明,所提模型能够准确发现供应链系统的薄弱环节,为供应链合作伙伴选择和效率提升提供了量化依据。As for the supply chain with the manufacturer as the core enterprise, the supply chain system is divided into entity class, individual class and factor class. The entity class is consisted of several nodes of individual class which can be affected by several nodes of factor class. The supply chain risk of failure can be conducted in the three levels. With the help of stochastic Petri nets, the reliability diagnosis model of supply chain is constructed, and the transmission of the failure risk of the supply chain is graphically represented. The relationship between the failure risk of supply chain and all kinds of nodes in the model is analyzed. The Monte Carlo sinmlation of supply chain reliability diagnosis reasoning algorithm is based on examples to validate the supply chain reliability model and simulation inference algorithm. Experimental data show that the proposed model can accurately identify the weaknesses of the supply chain system, and provide a quantitative basis for the selection of supply chain partners and the promotion of efficiency.

关 键 词：供应链可靠性 诊断模型 随机PETRI网 蒙特卡罗 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术] N945.12[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]