2016年湖北省一次暖区极端降水过程预报偏差分析  

Analysis of extreme precipitation forecast deviation in a warm region of Hubei province in 2016

作　　者：张萍萍[1] 孙军 董良鹏[1] 陈璇[1] 车钦[1] 钟敏[1] 张蒙蒙[1] 张宁[3] ZHANG Ping-ping;SUN Jun;DONG Liang-peng;CHEN Xuan;CHE Qin;ZHONG Min;ZHANG Meng-meng;ZHANG Ning(Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory,Wuhan 430074,China;National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;Science and Technology Department of Hubei Meteorological Service,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉中心气象台,湖北武汉430074 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081 [3]湖北省气象局科技与预报处,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2018年第5期1-8,共8页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306011);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2018-046)共同资助;湖北省气象局基金项目(2017Z02)

摘　　要：利用美国国家环境预报中心和美国国家大气科学研究中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research,NCEP/NCAR)全球数值模式再分析资料(Reanalysis data of Global Numerical Model)资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心全球数值模式(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,EC)资料、华东区域中尺度模式(Shanghai Meteorological Bureau-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System,SMB-WARMS)资料及其他常规气象观测资料,对2016年7月5—6日湖北省一次暖区极端降水过程的预报偏差进行了分析。结果表明:EC模式低层预报风场与实况相比向西移动速度偏快,导致强降水落区预报偏西;忽视925 hPa切变线的动力触发作用及对流中高层干层的作用、对水汽迅速增加和极端性认识不足、对中尺度系统的演变规律估计不够等原因,导致预报的降水强度和落区与实况相比有一定偏差。业务数值模式提前72 h、48 h、24 h预报的降水与实况相比均存在偏差,其中华东区域中尺度模式可以提前12 h对降水落区进行调整,在本例中对修正降水预报结论具有较好的指示作用。Based on reanalysis data from a global numerical model of National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR）,data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （EC） and Shanghai Meteorological Bureau-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System （SMB-WARMS）,and other conventional meteorological observational data,the forecast deviation of extreme precipitation event for a warm-region in Hubei province on July 5-6,2016 was analyzed.The results showed that the low-level wind field predicted by the EC model moves westward faster than the real situation,resulting in westward biases in the predicted heavy precipitation area.The forecast deviation in precipitation intensity and falling area during this event is mainly due to lack of awareness of the dynamic triggering effect of the shear line at 925 hPa and its influence on the dry layer in the upper troposphere,the rapid increase of water vapor and its extremity,and the evolution of Mesoscale Convective System （MCS）.Although there is a deviation between the 72 h,48 h,and 24 h precipitation forecast and the real precipitation,the 12 h precipitation area in the SMB-WARMS model can be adjusted in advance,which can be used as a good indicator to the modification of precipitation prediction.

关 键 词：极端降水 中尺度对流系统 干层 数值模式 预报偏差 

分 类 号：P458.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]