湖南省超级早稻高温热害预警技术研究  

Early Warning Technique for High Temperature-induced Heat Damage to Super Early Rice in Hunan Province Based on Standardized Anomaly

作　　者：胡雪媛[1,2] 王春乙 张超[4,2] 黄晚华[4,2] HU Xue-yuan;WANG Chun-yi;ZHANG Chao;HUANG Wan-hua(Nanjing University of Information Science ＆ Technology,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210044,China;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Hunan Province,Changsha,Hunan 410118,China;Key Laboratory of Preventing-Diminishing Meteorological Disasters in Hunan Province,Changsha,Hunan 410118 China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044 [2]湖南省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,湖南长沙410118 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [4]湖南省气象科学研究所,湖南长沙410118

出　　处：《杂交水稻》2018年第5期51-58,共8页Hybrid Rice

基　　金："十二五"农村领域国家科技支撑计划:农林气象灾害监测预警与防控关键技术研究-重大农业气象灾害风险评价与管理关键技术研究(2011BAD32B004);科技部"十三五"支撑项目:长江中游双季水稻和玉米光温生产潜力及产量差和效率差分布规律;限制因素与丰产增效潜力(2016YFD0300101-05);公益性行业(气象)科研专项:超级稻超高产栽培气象保障技术研究(201206045)

摘　　要：湖南省超级早稻抽穗扬花期间的主要气象灾害是高温热害。开展高温热害预警研究,为双季超级早稻及时采取高温热害防御措施,对于减轻高温热害不利影响具有重要意义。引入温度异常度概念,构建超级早稻的高温热害预警指数SA(standardized anomaly),利用TS(threat score)评分法确定了超级早稻抽穗扬花—灌浆成熟期的SA指数预报阈值,并结合欧洲中心细网格温度预报资料,进行湖南省超级早稻的高温预警。利用2012和2015年2 a典型的高温年份检验,结果表明,SA指标预警结果与实况基本一致,因此可以使用该方法进行长江中下游地区超级早稻高温热害预警。High temperature-induced heat damage to super early rice at the heading and flowering stage is a major agrometeorological disaster in Hunan Province. It is of great significance to conduct early warning studies on high temperature-induced heat damage in order to take preventive measures to alleviate their adverse impacts on super early rice. In this work, the concept of temperature anomaly was introduced to construct the early warning index SA （standardized anomaly） for the high temperature-induced heat damage to super early rice. Furthermore, the TS （threat score） scoring method was used to determine the threshold of the SA index for super early rice from the heading and flowering stage to the grain filling and ripening stage. In combination with the fine grid temperature forecast data from the European center, the early warning was conducted on the high temperature-induced heat damage to super early rice in Hunan Province. As for the early warning and testing of high temperature events in 2012 and 2015, the forecasted results shown by the SA index were basically consistent with the actual situation. The SA index can meet the requirements related to timeliness and accuracy of an early warning system for the high temperature-induced heat damage to super early rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

关 键 词：超级早稻 高温热害 预警 温度异常度 预报阈值 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护] S165