基于改进灰色关联分析法的区域货运结构适应性分析  

Adaptability Analysis of Regional Freight Structure Based on Improved Grey Relational Analysis

作　　者：李斌[1] 左大杰[1,2,3] 雷之田 戴文涛 LI Bin;ZUO Dajie;LEI Zhitian;DAI Wentao(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 610031,China;State Local Joint Engineering Laboratory for Integrated Transportation and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu S ichuan 610031,China;National Research Center on Strategic Development of High-speed Railway,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都610031 [3]西南交通大学中国高铁发展战略研究中心,四川成都610031

出　　处：《综合运输》2018年第10期30-35,共6页China Transportation Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(15BGL003)

摘　　要：为研究区域货运结构与国民经济发展的系统关联性和协调程度，运用改进灰色关联分析法研究了区域货运结构适应性，引入相对关联系数对改进灰色相对关联度矩阵进行了系统特征和相关因素的优势分析，并以2000—2015年新疆货运结构进行了算例研究。结果表明：新疆货运结构与产业经济发展同步性较低；其关联关系总体稳定，且新疆仍旧处于工业化中期阶段；货运系统演变相对成型且呈现结构相对稳态；货运技术远未得到充分发挥，运输方式优势未得到充分体现。最后，本文给出相应建议以期为新疆等西部地区的货运结构优化与改革提供参考。To analyze the system relationship and coordination between regional freight structure and economic development, the freight structure adaptability is analyzed based on the improved Grey Relational Analysis, then the system characteristics and related factors are superior analyzed with improved Grey Relational Matrix and Relative Relational Coefficient. The research results show that： （1） the freight structure in Xinjiang is not in synchronicity with the industrial economic development; （2） their relevance is generally stable, while Xinjiang is still in the intermediate stage of industrialization; （3） freight system has evolved into relatively steady state in structure; （4） freight technology is not being well utilized, with their advantages not being fully reflected. Finally, some advices are given in order to provide reference for the freight structure optimization and reform in the western region including Xinjiang.

关 键 词：系统工程 货运结构 适应性分析 改进灰色关联分析模型 相对关联系数 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]