理性预期与现实通货膨胀波动效应的实证比较  

Empirical Comparison Between Rational Expectation and Real Inflation Fluctuation Effect

作　　者：王相宁[1] 王梦丽 Wang Xiangning;Wang Mengli(Department of Statistics and Finance,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学统计与金融系

出　　处：《统计与决策》2018年第20期149-151,共3页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章借助理性预期假说，使用2007年1月到2018年6月的月度数据得出通货膨胀预期序列，进而实证比较通货膨胀货币政策框架和通货膨胀预期货币政策框架的货币政策效果差异，即比较预期管理和事后管理的政策效果。结果表明，重视预期管理比事后采取相关调控措施，政策效果更为温和，有利于维护市场的稳定。This paper employs the hypothesis of rational expectation, uses monthly data from January 2007 to June 2008 to obtain inflation expectation sequences, and empirically compares the difference of monetary policy effect between inflation mone- tary policy framework and inflation expectation monetary policy framework, i.e. the comparison between the policy effects of ex- pected management and that of post management. The results show that the effect of the policy resulted from more attention to the expected management is more moderate than taking the relevant control measures after the event, which is beneficial to the main-

关 键 词：通货膨胀预期 货币政策效果 

分 类 号：F123.16[经济管理—世界经济]