基于非集计理论的高铁与民航客运分担率研究  

Research on the Sharing Rate of High Speed Rail and Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Based on Disaggregate Theory

作　　者：王星 WANG Xing(School of Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《物流科技》2018年第11期86-89,共4页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：在高速铁路和民航客运高速发展的今天,二者针对客流的竞争博弈已经成为研究热点。文章基于非集计理论,建立描述高速铁路与航空运输竞争的BL (Binary-Logit)模型对高铁与民航的客运分担率进行研究,研究以实地调查数据为基础,通过计算影响因素的相关性进行筛选,对剩余影响因素进行参数标定以量化其对旅客选择行为的影响程度。研究结果表明,随着机票价格的降低,高铁和民航的竞争愈发激烈;而随着高铁行程前时间的增长,其竞争优势大大降低,民航客运则迅速占领市场。本研究将有助于实现高铁和民航的协同发展。With the rapid development of high-speed railway and civil aviation passenger transport, the competition game between the two for passenger flow has become a research hotspot. Based on the non-aggregate theory, this paper establishes a BL（Binary-Logit）model describing the competition between high-speed railway and air transportation to study the passenger-sharing ratio of high-speed rail and civil aviation. Based on the field survey data, the paper calculates the correlation of the influencing factors. Screening, parameter calibration of the remaining influencing factors to quantify its impact on passenger selection behavior. The research results show that with the decrease of ticket prices, the competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation becomes more and more fierce; with the increase of the time before the high-speed rail, its competitive advantage is greatly reduced, and civil aviation passengers quickly occupy the market. This research will help to achieve the coordinated development of high-speed rail and civil aviation.

关 键 词：高速客运 竞争关系 非集计模型 分担率 

分 类 号：F506[经济管理—产业经济]