考虑心理潜变量的共享单车出行选择行为研究  

Research on the Choosing Behavior of Bike-sharing Incorporating Psychological Latent Variables

作　　者：王翔翔 严凌[1] WANG Xiangxiang;YAN Ling(Management School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《物流科技》2018年第11期90-94,共5页Logistics Sci-Tech

摘　　要：为了更真实地还原居民共享单车选择行为过程,提出了考虑心理潜变量的选择模型来增强模型解释能力。首先采用多原因、多指标模型识别选择行为中的潜变量,估计出模型参数之后预测潜变量拟合值,加入离散选择模型形成混合选择模型以描述出行者的社会经济属性、共享单车出行特性及潜变量对选择行为的影响。并以上海市杨浦区为例,对出行者进行问卷调查,将得到的274份有效数据整理分析后,发现性别、年龄、受教育程度及小汽车拥有率对态度变量的影响较大,方便性、灵活性与骑行时的环境对选择行为的影响较大;考虑了心理潜变量的混合选择模型拥有更高的拟合度。In order to describe the residents＇ bike-sharing choice behavior more realistically, psychological latent variables were introduced into the choice model. A multiple indicators multiple causes model is used to recognize the latent variables in choice behavior,then the fitted values of latent variables were introduced into the discrete choice model to analyze the effect of individual＇s socioeconomic features、bike-sharing travel characteristics and latent variables on the choice behavior. Taking Yangpu district of Shanghai as an example, it is found that gender, age, education and car ownership rate have a greater impact on attitude variables. Convenience, flexibility and riding environment have a greater impact on choice behavior. A hybrid choice model considering latent variables has a higher degree of fit.

关 键 词：交通工程 出行选择行为 共享单车 心理潜变量 混合选择模型 多指标多原因模型 

分 类 号：U491.54[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]