新兴经济体在推动真实经济周期过程中对发达经济体失业率的影响  

The Impact of Emerging Economies on Unemployment of Developed Economies in Driving Forward the Real Economic Cycle

作　　者：王巨川[1] 叶挺 杨双鹏 WANG Juchuan;YE Ting;YANG Shuangpeng(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第5期52-62,共11页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划项目"民族地区集体林权纠纷解决研究"(YB2016063)

摘　　要：以往关于失业率的研究主要限于单个经济体内部因素,而很少从经济体之间的相互影响去研究失业率产生的原因。本文另寻视角,以新兴经济体推动的世界真实经济周期为经济背景。在所研究的两次世界真实经济周期中,分别选取当时的产业输出国为发达经济体,选取产业接受国为新兴经济体。选用新兴经济体的经济增长率、汇率波动以及发达经济体的通货膨胀率、收入水平作为自变量,以全球的视角来研究发达经济体失业率产生的另一机制,并根据研究结果对当下中国经济所处的阶段进行判断,解释中美贸易战产生的原因,以及解决方案。借鉴以往发达经济体处于经济周期不同阶段失业率上升的不同原因,提出降低国内失业率以及未来可能上升的失业率的解决思路。Previ0us studies on unemployment have been limited to internal factors in individual economies,and little has been done to study the causes of unemployment from the interaction of economies. This article starts from a new perspective,taking the real economic cycle of the world driven by emerging economies as the economic background. In the two real economic cycles of the world,the industrial export countries were selected as the developed economies and the industrial recipient countries as the emerging economies. Choosing the economic growth rate,exchange rate fluctuation and inflation rate of advanced economy as independent variables,the paper studies another mechanism of unemployment in developed economy from a global perspective. It examines the current situation of China＇s economy,explains the causes of the trade war between China and the United States of America,and put forwards relevant solutions. In the meantime,referring to the different reasons for the rise of unemployment rate in different stages of the economic cycle in the past,the paper puts forward the solutions to reducing the domestic unemployment rate and the unemployment rate that may rise in the future.

关 键 词：真实经济周期 失业率 增长率 汇率 通货膨胀 收入水平 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]