基于AHP-FUZZY的地震危险度评价初探  

Study on Seismic Hazard Assessment Based on AHP-FUZZY Method

作　　者：张文朋[1] ZHANG Wen-peng(Tianjin Earthquake Agency,Tianjin 300201,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市地震局,天津300201

出　　处：《华北地震科学》2018年第4期63-72,共10页North China Earthquake Sciences

基　　金：地震风险预警技术及服务产品研发与应用(S18AQ01022);天津市地震局青年基金重点项目(2018022)

摘　　要：以天津地区为例,通过对断裂构造及地震等基础资料的分析处理,建立了适合大区域的地震危险水平评价方法体系,利用层次分析法确定该评价指标体系中评价因子的权值,运用两级模糊综合评判法对研究区的危险水平分区进行定量评价,最终根据最大隶属度原则得出天津地区危险度评价结果。结果显示:极高危险区基本分布在塘沽、津南区葛沽镇、宁河区及蓟运河断裂附近;高危险区主要分布在天津市区部分区域、蓟州区桑梓镇及极高危险区周边等地;蓟州区东部及尤古庄—侯家营一带、武清区、北辰区、西青区西南、静海区北部及西部、大港区及市内河西—南开一带为低危险或极低危险区;其他区域属中度危险区。Taking the Tianjin area as an example, this paper established evaluation method system of seismic hazard suitable for large area through the analysis and processing of the basic data such as fault tectonics and earthquakes. This method determine the weight of the evaluation factors in the evaluation index system by the AHP, and quantitatively evaluate the risk zone of the study area by the two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and finally obtain evaluation risk assessment results of Tianjin area according to the principle of maximum membership. The results show that the extremely high risk areas are basically distributed in Tanggu, Gegutown of Jinnan District, Ninghe District and near the Jiyunhe fault; High-risk areas are mainly distributed in some parts of Tianjin urban area, Sangzitown of Jizhou district and the surrounding area of extremely high danger area. The eastern part of Jizhou District and Youguzhuang-Houjiaying area, Wuqing District, Beichen District, southwest of Xiqing District, the north and west areaof Jinghai District, Dagang District and Hexi-Nankai urban area are low risk or very low risk area; Other areas are moderately dangerous.

关 键 词：AHP FUZZY 天津 地震危险度评价 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]