基于灰色理论的长沙市畜禽养殖环境承载力研究  

Research on Environmental Carrying Capacity of Livestock and Poultry Breeding in Changsha City Based on Grey Theory

作　　者：董法秀 万大娟[1] 王开心 兰鹏鹏 DONG Fa-xiu;WAN Da-juan;WANG Kai-xin;LAN Peng-peng(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2018年第11期101-104,共4页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

摘　　要：运用系统分析方法,对长沙市畜禽养殖环境承载力进行量化;同时运用灰色数列预测模型对长沙市畜禽养殖环境承载力进行预测。结果表明:运用灰色数列预测模型计算长沙市畜禽养殖环境承载力的结果准确度较高,长沙市2010～2016年自然状态下畜禽养殖环境承载力处于适宜值与警戒值之间,若将长沙市70%的畜禽养殖污染物再利用,畜禽养殖环境承载力均超过适宜值。预计2017～2025年长沙市畜禽养殖环境承载力值将呈上升趋势。The systemic analysis method was used to quantify the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Changsha. At the same time, the grey series forecasting model was used to predict the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in this city. The results showed that the calculation results of the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Changsha obtained by grey series forecasting model was more accurate. From 2010 to 2016, the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding under natural conditions in Changsha was between the appropriate value and the alarm value; if 70% of livestock and poultry breeding pollutants in Changsha city were reused, the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding would exceed the appropriate value. It is predicted that the environmental carrying capacity of livestock and poultry breeding in Changsha from 2017 to 2025 will exhibit an upward trend.

关 键 词：畜禽养殖业 环境承载力 系统分析模型 灰色数列预测模型 

分 类 号：X713[环境科学与工程—环境工程]