大坝风险评估与管理关键技术研究进展  

Research progress and its practice of key techniques for dam risk assessment and management

作　　者：盛金保[1,2,3] 厉丹丹 蔡荨[1,2] 彭雪辉[1,2] SHENG JinBao;LI DanDan;CAI Qian;PENG XueHui(Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;Dam Safety Management Center of the Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210029,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,南京210029 [2]水利部大坝安全管理中心,南京210029 [3]水利部土石坝破坏机理与防控技术重点实验室,南京210029

出　　处：《中国科学：技术科学》2018年第10期1057-1067,共11页Scientia Sinica(Technologica)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2018YFC0407106;2016YFC0401603);国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:51679151);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(批准号:Y717012);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(批准号:201501033)资助

摘　　要：大坝风险客观存在,对大坝风险进行评估和管理,事关工程安全和公共安全.本文基于中国的溃坝概率统计分析,简要回顾了大坝风险评估和管理技术发展过程,阐述了大坝风险管理内涵,对溃坝模式和溃坝路径识别、溃坝概率与溃坝后果计算、人因可靠性、梯级水库群风险评估与控制、大坝风险标准和风险决策等涉及大坝风险评估与风险管理的关键技术进行了综述,对风险排序和决策、风险预警及应急预案、降等报废、大坝安全年度报告、运行维护与监测手册等风险管理实用技术和工具在中国大坝安全行业管理的应用现状进行了总结,展望了大坝风险评估与管理技术未来的研究方向,以期引起全行业更深入的探讨,促进中国大坝尽快由"工程安全管理"向"风险管理"的转变.Dam risk is an objective existence. The assessment and management of dam risk are related to engineering safety and public safety. In this paper, an overview of the development of dam risk assessment and management techniques in China is made based on the statistical analysis of dam break probability. The connotation of dam risk management is defined. The key techniques of dam risk assessment and management are summarized including identification of dam break model and dam break path, calculation of the probability and consequences of dam break, human reliability, risk assessment and control of cascade reservoirs, dam risk criteria, risk decision, etc. The current application status of practical risk management techniques and tools in China dam safety management is analyzed including risk ranking and decision making, risk early-warning and emergency plan, dam demotion and retirement, annual report on dam safety and operation maintenance and monitoring manual. The future research direction of dam risk assessment and management techniques is prospected. It is hoped that further discussion on dam risk management among the whole industry could be carried out and the change from ＂engineering safety management＂ to ＂risk management＂ could be promoted as fast as possible in China.

关 键 词：大坝 人因可靠性 风险评估 风险管理 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]