哈尔滨市大气污染与居民循环系统疾病死亡风险的相关分析  

Correlation analysis between air pollution and risk of death from circulatory diseases of residents in Harbin

作　　者：郑晶[1] 刘晓秋[1] 刘芳[1] 张媛媛 梁雪松[1] ZHENG Jing;LIU Xiao-qiu;LIU Fany;ZHANG Yuan-yuan;LIANG Xue-song(Department of Public Health Monitoring,Heilongjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin,Heilong]iang 150001,China）.)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测所,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《环境与职业医学》2018年第10期885-891,共7页Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

基　　金：黑龙江省卫生计生委2018年度科技计划项目(编号:2018-554)

摘　　要：[目的]探讨黑龙江省哈尔滨市大气污染与居民循环系统疾病死亡风险的相关性。[方法]收集2016年该市大气污染物(PM_(2.5)、SO_2、NO_2、CO和O_3)质量浓度(以下简称"浓度")数据、气象资料(平均气温和平均相对湿度)及居民循环系统疾病死亡数据,采用单污染物和多污染物广义相加模型的时间序列分析方法,分析大气污染物与该市居民循环系统疾病死亡风险间的相关关系。[结果] 2016年该市大气PM_(2.5)和NO_2年平均浓度超出GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》中污染物浓度限值标准。该市全年有33 694人死于循环系统疾病,其中≥65岁者占71.2%。单污染物模型结果显示PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg/m^3,滞后3日的总人群和≥65岁人群循环系统疾病死亡风险分别增加0.37%(95%CI:0.06%～0.68%)和0.44%(95%CI:0.09%～0.78%)。多污染物模型结果表明拟合SO_2或O_3时,PM_(2.5)对≥65岁居民循环系统疾病死亡风险与PM_(2.5)单污染物模型基本保持一致;拟合SO_2+O_3或SO_2+CO或SO_2+NO_2+O_3或SO_2+NO_2+O_3+CO时,PM_(2.5)对<65岁居民循环系统疾病死亡的风险比PM_(2.5)单污染物模型相比明显增加,分别增加3.70%(95%CI:0.69%～6.79%)、3.86%(95%CI:0.75%～7.07%)、5.32%(95%CI:1.75%～9.01%)、5.30%(95%CI:1.73%～9.01%)。供热期大气PM_(2.5)对总人群及≥65岁居民循环系统疾病日死亡的负面健康效应有所增加,分别增加0.48%(95%CI:0.16%～0.81%)和0.56%(95%CI:0.21%～0.92%);非供热期,拟合CO、NO_2+SO_2+CO、NO_2+O_3+CO、SO_2+O_3+CO时,PM_(2.5)对总人群和≥65岁居民循环系统疾病日死亡风险的负面效应增强(0.23%～0.26%和0.29%～0.31%)。[结论] PM_(2.5)暴露可能增加循环系统疾病患者死亡风险。SO_2、NO_2、O_3和CO污染物与PM_(2.5)间存在协同作用。To assess the relationship between air pollution and risk of death from circulatory diseases among residents in Harbin City in Heilongjiang Province. [ Methods] Air pollutant concentrations （PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, and 03）, meteorological data （average temperature and relative humidity）, and death data of residents due to circulatory diseases in Harbin were eollected in 2016. The relationship between levels of selected air pollutants and the risk of death caused by circulatory diseases was evaluated by time-series analyses with generalized additive models of single pollutant and multiple pollutants. [ Results] In 2016, the annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 exceeded the limits of corresponding pollutant concentrations, according to the Ambient Air Quality Standard （GB 3095-2012）. A total of 33 694 deaths were registered with the primary cause as circulatory diseases in the city, of which 71.2% were over 65 years oht. The results of single-pollutant model showed that the risk of death from circulatory, diseases increased in the total population and those aged ≥ 65 years by 0.37% （95%CI： 0.06%-0.68%） and 0.44% （95%CI： 0.09%-0.78%） after 3 days of PM2.5 exposure, respectively, for each 10 μg/m^3 increase of PM2.5 concentration. In the multi-pollutant models of PM2.5＋SO2 and PM2.5＋O3, the risks in the residents aged 〉/65 years were basically Ihe same as that of the PM25 single-pollutant model; in the multi-pollutant models of PM2.5＋SO2＋O3, PM2.5＋SO2＋CO, PM25＋SO2＋NO2＋O3, or PM2.5＋SO2＋NO2＋O3＋CO, the risks in the residents aged 〈65 years were significantly higher than that in the PM_,s single-pollutant model, which increased 3.70% （95%CI： 0.69%-6.79%）, 3.86% （95%CI： 0.75%-7.07%）, 5.32% （95%CI： 1.75%-9.01%） and 5.30% （95%CI： 1.73%-9.01%）, respectively, The negative health effects of PM2- on the daily mortality risk due to circulalory diseases increased in heating period in total population and those aged t〉 65 years, which incre

关 键 词：大气污染 PM2.5 循环系统疾病 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]