反应堆系统地震载荷下动力响应计算的不确定性分析  

Uncertainty Analysis of Reactor System Dynamical Response under Seismic Load

作　　者：熊夫睿[1] 黄茜[1] 沈平川[1] Xiong Furui;Huang Qian;Shen Pingchuan(Science and Technology on Reactor System Design Technology Laboratory,Nuclear Power Institute of China,Chengdu,610213,China)

机构地区：[1]中国核动力研究设计院核反应堆系统设计技术重点实验室,成都610213

出　　处：《核动力工程》2018年第5期167-171,共5页Nuclear Power Engineering

摘　　要：反应堆结构在地震载荷下的动力分析是反应堆系统安全设计的重要环节。反应堆系统的关键参数由于计算误差、制造工艺和安装过程中的随机和其他不可控误差影响,通常存在一定的不确定性。本文开展了反应堆系统中结构参数不确定性对地震载荷下系统动力响应的影响研究。应用最大熵原理,建立描述反应堆系统部件间接触刚度和间隙的概率密度分布函数。应用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛采样(MCMC)技术,对系统关键参数进行采样,建立不同参数下地震响应的输入输出数据池,基于数据池考察反应堆系统不同位置和部件的动力响应分布。研究表明,上、下堆芯板附近的动力响应的不确定性存在不同分布。本文所述研究对评价反应堆系统地震分析模型的鲁棒性和动力响应结果的可靠性提供了定量分析手段。Dynamical analysis of the reactor structure under seismic load is a key procedure during the safety design of the entire reactor system. Due to stochastic and other uncontrollable errors during computation, manufacturing and installation, structural parameters usually subject to a certain amount of uncertainties. Reactor system seismic response influenced by uncertain structural parameters is investigated in this paper. Maximum entropy principle is adopted to construct the probability density distributions（PDFs） of contact stiffness and clearance values among various assemblies of the reactor system. Then, Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） technique is applied to sample data points according to given PDFs and the input-output data pool is constructed. Distributions of dynamical responses at various locations of the reactor system are examined from the sampled data pool. Results show that the uncertainties near upper and lower core plates depict different distribution patterns. The research in this paper provides a way to quantitatively study the robustness of the seismic analysis and the reliability of dynamical responses in the reactor system.

关 键 词：反应堆系统 最大熵原理 参数不确定性 动力响应计算 

分 类 号：TL353[核科学技术—核技术及应用]