不同阶段卫生总费用与国内生产总值增长关系研究  

Research on growth relationship of total health expenditure and gross domestic product at different stages

作　　者：李秀云 张惠卿[3] 张振楠[4] 韩晓伟 马桂峰 LI Xiu-yun;ZHANG Hui-qing;ZHANG Zhen-nan;HAN Xiao-wei;MA Gui-feng(Weifang Medical University（a.Public Health and Management College,b.Public Course Teaching Department）,Weifang 261053,Shandong China;Weifang People＇s Hospital（a.Medical Equipment Department,b.PharmacyDepartment of Traditional Chinese Medicine）,Weifang 261041,Shandong China;Health Shandong Major SocialRisk Prediction and Management Collaborative Innovation Center,Weifang 261053,Shandong China)

机构地区：[1]潍坊医学院公共卫生与管理学院,潍坊261053 [2]潍坊市人民医院医学装备部,潍坊261041 [3]潍坊市人民医院中药房,潍坊261041 [4]潍坊医学院公共课教学部,潍坊261053 [5]"健康山东"重大社会风险预测与治理协同创新中心,潍坊261053

出　　处：《中国卫生资源》2018年第6期487-490,共4页Chinese Health Resources

基　　金：山东省研究生导师指导能力提升项目(SDYY17104);潍坊医学院教育教学改革项目(2016Y001);国家自然科学基金项目(71673202);"健康山东"重大社会风险预测与治理协同创新中心资助项目(XT1401001;XT1401002;XT1401003)

摘　　要：目的预测我国国内生产总值和卫生总费用的发展趋势和增长阶段,判断国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)与卫生总费用(total health expenditure,THE)之间增长阶段是否一致。方法利用SPSS 21.0曲线估计拟合1978—2015年数据的logistic函数模型,对GDP与THE增长进行分段研究。结果我国GDP与THE发展趋势基本符合logistic函数增长模型。我国GDP快速增长期开始于2021年,结束于2048年。我国THE快速增长期开始于2024年,结束于2047年。THE到2047年增至32.77万亿元。结论从数据分析的结果来看,拟合效果较为理想,预测也较为准确。从GDP与THE发展的阶段来看,两者发展阶段的步调基本一致。Objective To forecast development and growth stage of gross domestic product（GDP） and total healthexpenditure（THE） in China and determine whether growth of GDP and THE are synergistic. Methods SPSS 21.0 curvewas used to estimate THE logistic model during 1978-2015. The growth of GDP and THE was investigated at different stages.Results The development trend of THE and GDP in China generally corresponded with logistic model. Rapid GDP growthwas expected to begin in 2021 and end in 2048. THE rapid growth was expected to begin in 2024 and end in 2047. In 2047,THE was expected to reach 32.77 trillion yuan in 2047. Conclusion The results of data fitting demonstrated that the resultswere ideal and the prediction was accurate. The development of THE and GDP are simultaneous.

关 键 词：卫生总费用 国内生产总值 LOGISTIC模型 

分 类 号：R1-9[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] F840.613[经济管理—保险]