基于AIS数据的海区通航危险度决策模型  

AIS Data-Based Navigation Risk Modeling

作　　者：李连博[1] 牛佳伟 刘军坡[1] 刘德新[1] LI Lianbo; NIU Jiawei; LIU Junpo; LIU Dexin(Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国航海》2018年第3期68-75,共8页Navigation of China

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金指导计划(20180550283);中央高校基本科研业务费青年教师科技创新项目(3132018153);大连海事大学教学改革项目(2018Y03)

摘　　要：为增强海上交通运输安全,基于船舶自动识别系统(Automatic Indentification System,AIS)信息中能够提取分析的有关数据,建立基于AIS数据的海区通航安全评价指标体系。结合海区通航安全指标评价体系,运用系统模糊决策理论与应用中的多目标多层次模糊优选理论,建立高风险海区模糊优选模型,并利用相对优属度向量进行排序,从层次的最底层向高层逐层进行计算,选出若干海区中通航风险相对较高的海区。将模型计算结果分别与海区交通实况和模糊层次综合评判的评价结果相比较,对比结果基本趋于一致,验证该模型具有较强的科学性和实用性,能对不同海区的船舶通航危险度进行判别,为沿海水域船舶定线制规划设计、搜救站点布局和搜救力量的配置,也可为有关主管部门的海事安全管理等决策提供参考。An index system for assessing marine navigation risk based on Automatic Indentification System（ AIS） data is set up. The model for determining navigation risk level associated with particular waterway according to the relative motion data extracted from AIS information is developed based on the fuzzy decision-making theory and multi-objective and multi-layer fuzzy optimization theory. Sea areas are sorted according to the optimal relative membership degree vector from lower layer to higher layer to determine the rank of sea area in risk level order. The results obtained from the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model are compared to traffic reality,which proves that the model is right in principle and practical. The model can be used for planning shipping routes,the search and rescue sites and resources. It is also a decision-making aid for the maritime safety administration.

关 键 词：海上交通安全 船舶自动识别系统信息 多目标多层次 高风险海区 模糊决策 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]