1724-2016年上海地区冬季平均气温重建与特征分析  

Reconstruction of winter mean temperature in Shanghai area during 1724 to 2016 AD

作　　者：刘炳涛[1] 张健 满志敏[3] Liu Bingtao;Zhang Jian;Man Zhinmin(School of Marxism,Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 201306;College of Urban Environmental Sciences,Northwest University,Xi＇an 710069;Center for Historical Geography of Fudan University,Shanghai 200433)

机构地区：[1]上海电机学院马克思主义学院,上海201306 [2]西北大学丝绸之路研究院西北历史研究所,陕西西安710069 [3]复旦大学历史地理研究中心,上海200433

出　　处：《中国历史地理论丛》2018年第4期70-77,共8页Journal of Chinese Historical Geography

基　　金：2014年国家社科基金青年项目(编号:14CZS037)

摘　　要：利用清代长三角地区的"晴雨录"档案、日记资料和现代器测气象数据,重建了上海地区1724年以来逐年的冬季平均气温变化序列,并对其特征进行了分析。结果显示:(1)过去近300年上海地区的冬季平均气温4.7℃,依据冬季平均气温累积距平来看,气温变化具有明显阶段性特征,主要表现为1个下降阶段和1个上升阶段:1800s-1940s气温持续递减,1980s以来气温持续递增。(2)M-K突变检验显示,1730s至1790s气温呈上升趋势,而1800s至1940s呈现下降趋势,其间1810s至1900s下降趋势明显,温度相对偏低。从1950s开始表现为增温趋势,到1980s开始快速上升,温度变化的突变点出现于1987年,尤其自20世纪末开始,增温趋势超越显著性水平。(3)小波分析显示,气温变化周期存在19a、55a、86a等3种主要时间尺度上的复杂性特征。重建的近300年以来上海地区冬季平均气温序列,与已有的春季物候序列在反映气候变化趋势和节点上具有明显一致性,基本反映出长三角地区同时期冬季平均气温变化趋势。当然,研究结论受制于史料的客观性缺陷与重建方法的误差,致使重建温度序列存在不确定性。Based on meteorological records extracted from Chinese historical Qing Yulu（晴 雨录）,dairies,and modern measuring meteorological data,annual winter mean temperature in Shanghai area since 1724 is reconstructed,and its characteristics is analyzed.The results are listed as follows.（1） The winter mean temperature was 4.7℃in Shanghai area during the past 300 years,according to the average winter temperature cumulative distance,and the temperature change has obvious stage characteristics including one declining stage and one rising stage.From 1800 sto 1940 s,the temperature decreased continuously while it has increased since 1980 s.（2） Mann-Kendall method shows that the temperature has a significant rising stage starting in 1730 sto 1790 s,and the significant downtrend began in 1800 sto 1900 s.During this period,the downward trend of 1810 sto 1900 swas obvious,and the temperature was relatively low;the warming trend from 1950 sto 1980 s,began to rise rapidly.Ever since the mutation in 1987,temperature was significantly more than the original decade level.（3） According to the wavelet analysis,three types of time scales of the temperature change are identified,with the average periods of 19 a,55 a,86 a.The winter mean temperature sequence in Shanghai area in the past 300 years and the spring perorate sequence are consistent with the climate change trend and the node,which basically reflects the temperature change of the Yangtze River Delta.However,the research conclusion is subject to the defect of historical documents and reconstruction methods,which leads to the uncertainty of the reconstruction temperature sequence.

关 键 词：历史气候记录 冬季平均气温 上海地区 1724-2016年 

分 类 号：K928[历史地理—人文地理学]