“全面二孩”政策下的人口数量与结构预测  

Population quantity and structure prediction under “the universal two-child policy”

作　　者：刘雨婷 刘艳琪[1] 邓智年 程子明 Liu Yuting;Liu Yanqi;Deng Zhinian;Cheng Ziming(College of Mathematics,University of South China,Hengyang 421001,China)

机构地区：[1]南华大学数理学院,湖南衡阳421001

出　　处：《湖南文理学院学报（自然科学版）》2018年第4期17-21,共5页Journal of Hunan University of Arts and Science(Science and Technology)

基　　金：湖南省教育厅基金项目(14C0986);大学生研究性学习和创新实验计划项目(315)

摘　　要：针对"全面二孩"政策下中国未来人口结构与数量问题,首先利用2000—2015年的实际数据对总和生育率模型进行回归分析确定了相关系数的取值,然后将总和生育率模型导入人口发展方程,得到最终的预测模型,并对我国未来三十年的人口数量与结构进行了预测,预测结果显示:我国将在2030年达到人口峰值约为14.5亿人,虽然在一定程度上减缓了老龄化的速度,但是并未从根本上解决我国人口老龄化的问题。In view of the problem of the population structure and quantity in China under ＂the universal two-child policy＂, the actual data of 2000-2015 are used to make a regression analysis of the total fertility rate model to determine the value of the correlation coefficient. And the total fertility rate model is introduced into the population development equation, and the final prediction model is obtained. The number and structure of population in China in the next thirty years is predicted in the text. The final forecast results show that China will reach a peak of 1 billion 450 million people in 2030; although the speed of aging is slowed down to a certain extent, the problem of aging population in China is not fundamentally solved, and the situation is still severe.

关 键 词：总和生育率模型 回归分析 预测模型 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]