经济政策不确定性、国有投资与民间投资增长背离  

Economic Policy Uncer taintyand Growth Divergence between State-owned Investment and Private Investment in China

作　　者：李鹏飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《南京大学学报（哲学．人文科学．社会科学）》2018年第5期74-86,共13页Journal of Nanjing University(Philosophy,Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目(SKGJCX2016);中国社会科学院京津冀协同发展智库项目(201702);国家自然科学基金青年项目(71203232)

摘　　要：本文通过面板回归模型估计,发现经济政策不确定性对民间投资增长的显著抑制效应是导致国有投资与民间投资增长背离的重要因素。经济政策不确定性对民间投资的负面影响具有多维特征,既有直接的实物期权效应,也有因金融摩擦而形成的金融加速器效应和债务—通缩效应,后两种效应对经济政策不确定性的民间投资抑制效应产生了明显放大作用,从而进一步强化了国有投资与民间投资增长背离趋势。面板门限模型的估计结果显示:金融摩擦的放大作用具有非线性特征:当金融摩擦程度较低时,民间投资主体面临较平等的融资环境,金融摩擦不会显著放大经济政策不确定性的民间投资抑制效应;当金融摩擦程度较高时,民间投资主体的投融资成本高于其他类型投资主体,金融摩擦会加剧经济政策不确定性对民间投资的负面影响。By conducting panel estimations, we find that economic policy uncertainty(EPU) has a significant negative effect on the growth of private investment(PI) in China. It is an important factor leading to the growth divergence between state-owned investment(SI) and PI in this country. The negative effect of EPU on PI has multi-dimensional features, including direct real option effect, and financial accelerator effect and Fisher deflation effect, due to financial fric-tion. Panel threshold model estimation shows that the exacerbating effect of financial friction has some non-linear characters. At a lower level of financial friction, there is no significant ex-acerbating effect of financial friction on the negative effect of EPU, because the agents of PI are in the face of a more equitable financing environment. When financial friction exceeds the threshold, it will aggravate further the negative effect of EPU on PI, because the financing costs of PI are higher than non-private investment.

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 国有投资 民间投资 面板门限模型 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F832