农业供给侧结构性改革背景下农业增长的影响因素研究——以吉林省四平市为例  

The Influence Factors of Agricultural Growth under the Background of Agricultural Supply-Side Structural Reform:The Evidence from Siping, Jilin Province

作　　者：赵洪丹 陈丽爽 ZHAO Hongdan;CHEN Lishuang(School of Economics and Law,Jilin Normal University,Siping,Jilin 136000,China;The Archives,Jilin Normal University,Siping,Jilin 136000,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学经法学院,吉林四平136000 [2]吉林师范大学档案馆,吉林四平136000

出　　处：《吉林师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2018年第6期113-124,共12页Journal Of Jilin Normal University:Humanities & Social Science Edition

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目"中国图们江区域合作开发战略研究"(编号:12JZD050);教育部人文社会科学项目"公债效应理论研究与国际实证检验"(编号:16YJA790033);吉林省"十三五"智库规划基金项目"农业供给侧结构性改革的推进路径及政策体系研究"(编号:2017JLSZKZB009);吉林省社会科学基金项目"吉林省农业供给侧结构性改革的金融支撑路径研究"(编号:2017B44);吉林省社会科学基金项目"吉林省农村金融与农村经济协调发展的机制与对策研究"(编号:2012B107);吉林省教育厅"十三五"社会科学项目"吉林省农业供给侧结构性改革的路径及对策研究"(编号:JJKH20180801SK)

摘　　要：本研究以我国农业主产区吉林省四平市为样本,利用1990-2015年实际数据,运用计量经济学方法,对农业增长的影响因素及其贡献进行了实证检验。结果表明,土地、劳动、资本、肥料、复种指数和非粮食作物种植比例对农业增长的作用显著,而价格和财政支农对农业增长的作用并不显著;资本、肥料和复种指数对农业增长的贡献较大,土地、劳动和非粮食种植比例对农业增长的贡献较小,农业科技对农业增长的贡献很低。为了推进农业供给侧结构性改革,实现农业有效供给的政策目标,不能仅仅依靠土地、劳动等传统农业生产要素投入,还必须增加农业科技投入,优化农业种植结构,提高农业集约化经营水平,同时,要提高财政支农效率及遏制耕地面积减少和劳动力流失。Taking siping city of Jilin province, the main agricultural area, as a research sample, using the actual data from 1990 to 2015, this paper makes an in-depth study of the influencing factors and contribution of agricultural growth using econometric methods. The results show that the land, labor, capital, fertilizer, replanting index and the proportion of non-food crop cultivation have a significant effect on agricultural growth, while the price and financial support for agriculture have not been significant. The index of capital, fertilizer and replanting contributes more to agricultural growth, the proportion of land, Labour and non-food cultivation contributes less or even negative to agricultural growth, and the contribution of agricultural science and technol- ogy to agricultural growth is very low. In order to advance structural reforms on the supply side of agriculture and achieve the policy goal of effective supply of agriculture, we must not rely solely on input from traditional agricultural production factors such as land and labor. We must increase input in agricultural science and technology, optimize the structure of agricultural cultivation, and increase the level of intensive agricultural management. We need to increase the efficiency of fiscal support for agriculture and curb the reduction of arable land and the loss of labor.

关 键 词：农业供给侧结构性改革 农业增长 影响因素 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] F326