天津地面相对湿度资料的非均一性检验及订正  

Inhomogeneity Validation and Correction of Monthly Surface Relative Humidity in Tianjin

作　　者：司鹏[1] 罗传军[1] 姜罕盛 徐梅[1] SI Peng;LUO Chuanjun;JIANG Hansheng;XU Mei(Tianjin Meteorological Information Centre,Tianjin 30007)

机构地区：[1]天津市气象信息中心,天津300074

出　　处：《气象》2018年第10期1332-1341,共10页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：天津市气象局科研项目重点项目(201701zdxm01)资助

摘　　要：研究中利用NCEP/DOEAMIP-ⅡReanalysis(R-2)比湿再分析资料和基础观测资料两种参考序列,对天津历史月平均相对湿度数据中存在的非均一性因素进行了检验和订正。结果显示,有9个地面站的相对湿度序列存在显著断点,占台站总数的69%。查阅台站元数据得到导致其突变的主要原因是自动站业务化,其次为迁站和仪器变更。从订正量来看,负订正量比例约占96. 3%,其中分布范围在-5.0%～-1.5%,约占总订正量的80%以上。对比分析订正前后月平均相对湿度序列的方差和趋势变化,均一性订正基本修正了非均一性因素造成的突变影响,减缓相对湿度序列长期出现异常偏干的趋势变化。同时,与朱亚妮等(2015)研制的同类数据产品误差分析发现,两类数据的误差平均值较小,但由于一些主观因素影响使得个别台站MAE、SE误差值达到3. 0%以上,造成MAE、SE误差值范围在0～2%的台站比例分别仅在84. 6%和76. 9%及两者以上。从而,一定程度上能够反映出本研究所采用的数据处理技术手段相对以往具有优越性。The historical monthly mean surface relative humidity at 13 observation stations in Tianjin are homogenized by two methods establishing reference series of NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis （R-2） spe- cific humidity data and observed relative humidity data. The results indicate that nine stations have signifi- cant breakpoints, accounting for 69 % of Tianjin＇s total stations. The main reason for the abrupt change is the automation referring to metadata information, and then is the relocation and instrument change. For the correction amplitude, the proportion of negative Quantile-Matching （QM） correction is nearly 96.3%, ranging in --5.0%--1.5%which accounts for more than 80% of the total correction. Here the changes of variances and trends of monthly mean surface relative humidity series before and after corrections are compared, implying that the artificialities due to some inhomogeneity factors in the series are largely cor- rected, and have reduced the abnormal dry tendency in relative humidity for a long time. Moreover, error analysis reveals that there is much higher consistency between the two datasets here and the data by Zhu Yani et al. （2015） by setting the latter as the reference. However, due to some subjective factors, the er- ror values of MAE and SE between the two datasets are more than 3. 0% at some individual stations, resulting in only above 84.6 0% and 76.9 % stations with error values of MAE and SE from 0 to 2.0 %, re- spectively. Accordingly, the technology of data processing used in this paper is more superior to those be- fore to a certain extent.

关 键 词：天津 相对湿度 参考序列 均一性检验和订正 可用性评估 

分 类 号：P413[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]