交通运输业技术进步对二氧化碳排放的影响——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究  

The Influence of Technological Progress on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Transportation: An Empirical Analysis of the Provincial Panel Data in China

作　　者：欧国立[1] 王妍[1] OU Guoli;WANG Yan(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第11期64-71,共8页Ecological Economy

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目“基于新型城镇化的区域生态综合交通体系发展模式与机制研究”(16GLA003)

摘　　要：区别于以往着重从现象出发研究交通运输业碳排放影响因素的视角,文章基于广义技术进步这一本质动力探索交通运输业技术进步对二氧化碳排放的影响。基于多重均衡理论和STIRPAT模型,使用2006—2015年中国省级数据,分析交通技术进步对二氧化碳排放的影响路径。结果显示：（1）交通运输业二氧化碳排放呈增长趋势,而一般广义技术进步水平和二氧化碳排放专有广义技术进步水平却有所放缓;（2）技术进步会普遍增加二氧化碳的排放量,整体处于“高碳”路径,但由于不同地区的人口数量和经济发展水平,技术进步对碳排放的影响可能存在门槛效应,基于此划分出不同情况下交通技术进步对二氧化碳的影响路径;（3）无论是哪种情况下,均未能呈现一般广义技术进步和二氧化碳排放专有广义技术进步“双减排”的最优化路径。针对上述研究结果,文章提出了三点政策建议。Different from the previous study of the factors influencing the carbon emissions of transportation in a phenomenal point of view, this paper explores the influence of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions in transportation, as technological progress is an essential driving force of carbon-reduction. With the Theory of Multi- Equilibrium and STIRPAT model, the effect of technological progress on carbon dioxide emissions in transportation industry is analyzed based on China＇s provincial transportation data from 2006-2015. The results show that： （1） There is a significant growth trend of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation, while the indexes of both general and specialized technological progress reveals a decreasing trend; （2） Nationwide, general technological progress will increase carbon dioxide emissions, which is in the ＂high carbon＂ path. At the same time, technological progress has a threshold effect on carbon emissions in transportation industry, depending on the population and economic development of this region, which leads to different paths of growth; （3） It fails to present the optimized path in which both general technological progress and specialized technological progress of carbon emission reduce carbon emissions. In order to improve the path of technological progress＇s influence on carbon dioxide, three suggestions are put forward.

关 键 词：交通运输业 技术进步 二氧化碳排放 影响路径 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]