中国货币之谜:假说、模型与估算——中国特色宏观经济学理论  

The Monetary Puzzle in China: Hypothesis, Model and Estimation

作　　者：刘明国[1] 郭峰 Liu Mingguo1;Guo Feng2

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2018年第10期12-23,共12页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科西部项目“中国特色宏观经济学理论体系研究”(14XKS001)

摘　　要：本文提出了价飚假说、中等收入水平抑制-政府主导投资假说,并在此基础上构建了一个非均衡动态经济增长模型,通过该模型本文对我国宏观经济运行中的货币漏损进行了估算,并提出了供给侧结构性改革应关注的“五大内容”。笔者认为,（1）理解宏观经济运动中的货币漏损,是理解中国货币之谜的关键;（2）中国经济面临中等收入水平抑制,经济增长的内生动力减弱,大幅扩张的货币在宏观边际消费倾向和资本预期收益率下降趋势下,大量以银行存款的形式沉淀下来;（3）政府主导的投资驱动增长,虽然有力地推动了当期GDP的增长,但一方面带来了增量货币的漏损,另一方面也加剧了存量货币的漏损;（4）货币在中国当前的资源性功能尚在,但呈弱化趋势;（5）巨量货币以定期存款形式成为银行系统的沉重负担,银行为了对冲巨额存款带来的利息负担,不惜将资金借贷于虚拟经济,形成新的货币漏损。This paper constructs a model of unbalanced dynamic economic growth on the basis of the price inflation hypothesis and the theory of middle- income suppression- government- led investment hypothesis, and then through which the currency leakage in China＇s macroeconomic operation is estimated. Understanding the monetary leakage in c movement is the key to understand the puzzle of money in China. The Chinese economy is facing the middle-income inhibition, the endogenous power of economic growth is weakening, and a lot of money of which is settling in the form of bank deposits in the decline of the macro marginal propensity to consume and the expected return of capital. The growth drove by government-led investment, on the one hand, causes the Incremental money leakage, on the other hand also increases the leakage of the stock money. At present resource function of money in China is weakening ,and too much money in the form of deposit become a heavy burden of the banking system. In order to hedge the interest burden of large deposits, banks have lent money to fictitious economic speculation to form a new type of money leakage. In order to realize the virtuous circle of finance and the sustainable ＆ healthy development of economy of China, there are five contents needed on the reform of supply side.

关 键 词：中国货币之谜 货币漏损 价飚 中等收入水平抑制 非均衡动态增长 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]