基于面板数据分析的居住用地调控政策绩效评价研究--以苏浙两省为例  

Effect of Regulation and Control Policies for Residential Land:A Case Study of Jiangsu and Zhejiang

作　　者：陆昱颖 金晓斌[1,2] 张志宏[1] 项晓敏[1] 周寅康[1,2] LU Yuying JIN Xiaobin ZHANG Zhihong XIANG Xiaomin ZHOU Yinkang

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院 [2]南京大学自然资源研究中心

出　　处：《现代城市研究》2018年第11期79-86,共8页Modern Urban Research

基　　金：教育部博士点基金(20120091110014).

摘　　要：近年来房地产市场中出现房价持续飙涨、投机性需求转向、政府过度依赖等问题,定量分析国家陆续出台的一系列房地产市场调控政策对热点区域土地价格的影响效果,对于调整土地供应结构、促进土体市场平稳健康发展具有重要意义。本文选取江、浙两省地级市为研究区,采用2010-2013年的面板数据,建立政府供地行为、交易行为与地价增长率动态变化的计量经济函数,对保障性住房用地供应量、土地供应量和土地市场交易活跃度等在土地价格变化中的调控绩效进行测算。研究结果表明2010-2013年相关调控政策总体上相对有效,但由于土地市场发育阶段、发展问题等地区差异性原因,采用全国统一的土地调控政策难以有效发挥预期作用,应在建立制度健全、竞争有序、健康稳定的土地市场发展总体目标下,因地制宜,以区域性差别化调控政策为主要手段,进一步提升居住用地调控绩效的效果。The purpose of this paper is to research the effect of the real estate market regulation and control policies on land price of those hot spots in recent years. The city-level panel data of Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 2010-2013 was used in the research to establish the econometric model that describes the dynamic changes between the policies and the growth rate of land price. The mixed OLS model was applied to estimate the control performance of affordable housing land supply, land supply and trading activity of land market. The results indicate that the regulation and control policies worked well on residential land,while there were different control influences among various cities. It is concluded that using unified land regulation and control policy cannot achieved the desired effect because of regional land market differences. Our government needs to make the suitable policies for the very cities and to further improve the regulation effect of residential land.

关 键 词：居住用地 政策调控 绩效评价 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]