土耳其的总统制:修宪结果与不确定性未来  

Turkey's Presidential System: Constitutional Amendment and the Uncertain Future

作　　者：李艳枝[1] Li Yanzhi

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学历史学院

出　　处：《学术前沿》2018年第19期20-30,共11页Frontiers

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"土耳其正义与发展党执政理念与实践研究";项目编号为:2013CSS020;教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"土耳其内政外交政策与‘一带一路’战略研究"的阶段性成果;项目编号为:17JZD036

摘　　要：土耳其从议会制到总统制的转变与宪法修订密切相关。2007年宪法修正案规定总统直选;2010年宪法修正案重塑国家权力机构;2017年宪法修正案确定总统制的原则框架,并诉诸全民公投付诸实践。埃尔多安通过总统选举和议会选举确立高度集权的总统制模式,强烈的威权政治倾向给土耳其未来发展带来不确定性:军方和反对党对执政党的挑战、葛兰运动的潜在威胁和正义与发展党的内部分化等加剧政治治理危机,经济发展危机使土耳其很难跨越"中等收入陷阱",民粹主义的内在弊端带来发展困境,"无所适从的国家"处境使其外交走向面临诸多变数。Turkey＇s parliamentary-to-presidential system transition is intimately owing to its constitutional amendments. The 2007 Constitutional Amendment provides for direct presidential elections; the 2010 Constitutional Amendment restructures the state authorities; and the 2017 Constitutional Amendment helps to create the framework of the presidential system in principle and put into practice a referendum. Erdogan established a highly centralized presidential model through presidential and parliamentary elections. Strong authoritarian political tendencies bring uncertainties to Turkey＇s future development in that the challenge of the military and opposition parties to the ruling party, the potential threat of the Gulen Movement and the internal division of the Justice and Development Party may intensify the political governance crisis; the economic crisis will make it hard for Turkey to get past the ＂middle income trap＂; the inherent defects of populism will cause development difficulties; and the ＂torn country＂ identity may subject Turkey to diplomatic uncertainties.

关 键 词：正义与发展党 总统制 宪法修正案 不确定性 民粹主义 

分 类 号：D73[政治法律—政治学]