‘107杨’一级枝条基径和长度的动态模拟研究  

Dynamic simulation of length and diameter of first branches of '107 poplar'

作　　者：孙晓[1] 李春友[1] 贺红月 单媛媛[1] SUN Xiao;LI Chunyou;HE Hongyue;SHAN Yuanyuan(College of Forestry,Hebei Agricultural University,Baoding 071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学林学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《林业与生态科学》2018年第4期364-372,共9页Forestry and Ecological Sciences

基　　金：农村领域国家科技计划课题研究任务(2015BAD07B0506)

摘　　要：以保定地区‘107杨’为研究对象,调查统计了2~6a生‘107杨’快速生长期内枝条形态特征数据,利用传统经典模型筛选并构建了树高、胸径子模型及其一级枝长度和基径的基础模型,然后对基础模型与子模型进行耦合,构建了一级枝长度和基径的动态模型,最后利用最小二乘法对模型参数进行估计,通过判定系数R2、相对误差、模拟值与实测值的一元回归及其模型精度等指标来验证模型的预估能力,结果表明:树高子模型为H=2.244e0.315 t,其相对误差平均值为0.34%、精度为95.37%,胸径子模型为D=2.06-27.03t+139.42t2-135.32 t3,其平均相对误差为6.42%、精度为98.48%;一级枝长度模型为ln(L)=-1.347+0.135ln(2.06-27.03 t+139.42 t2-135.32 t3)+0.949ln(2.244e0.315 t),其平均绝对误差为0.29m、相对误差的平均值为9.10%、模型精度为98.21%;一级枝基径模型为ln(D)=-0.944+0.958ln(2.06-27.03t+139.42t2-35.32t3)+0.079ln(2.244e0.315 t),其平均绝对误差为3.5mm、相对误差平均值为9.21%、模型精度为97.89%。In this study, 107 poplars in Baoding area were selected as the research objects, and the morphological characteristics of branches in the rapid growing period were studied. Through the data analysis and processing, the model of tree height and diameter of the tho racic cavity, and the basic model of its primary branch length and base diameter were built. The model used the least square method to estimate the parameters, and used the coefficient of determinationR2, the relative error, the regression between the simulated value and the measured value and its model accuracy to verify the model＇s predictive ability. Result showed： tree high sub model was H =2. 244 e 0.315t The relative error and accuracy of the model were 0. 34% and 95. 37% . Breast diameter sub model was D 2. 06 27. 03t ＋ 139.42t2 -135.32t3.The relative error and accuracy of the model were 6.42% and 98.48% . A primary branch model was constructed by screening the relationship between the first branch and the height of the tree. Through thecoupling of the basic model and the sub-model, a first order branch length and base diameter model was constructed. A branch length model：in（L） 1. 347 ＋0. 135ln（2. 06- 27. 03t ＋ 139. 42t2- 135. 32t3） ＋ 0. 949 ln （2. 244 e 0.315 t）. The average absolute error, relative error and accuracy of the model were 0.29 m,9.10% and 98.21% . Primary branch base diametermodel：ln（D） 0. 944＋0. 958 ln （2.06 27.03t＋139.42t2- 135.32t3）＋0.079 ln（2.244 e 0.315 t）. The average absolute error, relative error and accuracy of the model were 3.5 mm,9.21% and 97.89%.

关 键 词：107杨 一级枝 基径 动态模拟 

分 类 号：S792.11[农业科学—林木遗传育种]