子女偏好与出生性别比的动态关系：1979-2017  

The Dynamic Relationship between Gender Preferences for Children and the Sex Ratio at Birth,1979-2017

作　　者：侯佳伟 顾宝昌[2] 张银锋[3] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学社会与心理学院,北京100081 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [3]天津社会科学院社会治理研究中心,天津300191

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2018年第10期86-101,共16页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“生育意愿和生育行为不一致现象的原因及其影响机制研究”(15CRK008)阶段性成果.

摘　　要：出生性别比是反映生命之初性别平等状况的基本指标。20世纪80年代中期以来,我国出生性别比偏离正常值且不断升高,2008年之后呈现下降趋势,但尚未恢复到正常范围。男孩偏好往往被认为是出生性别比失调的重要诱因。基于152项调查的横断历史元分析表明,近40年来,男孩偏好一直呈明显弱化趋势,中国人理想男孩数从1979—1989年的0.6人减至2010—2017年的0.4人,其占理想子女数的比例由34.5%降至27.9%。同时,女孩偏好也呈弱化趋势,社会整体文化氛围正在由有性别偏好向无性别偏好转变。性别偏好对出生性别比的影响在于,男孩偏好和女孩偏好的弱化不同步,出现"相对数变动效应"。当男孩偏好弱化迟缓于女孩偏好弱化时,呈现出男孩偏好相对强化,从而在生育率持续下降的进程中,导致出生性别比上升。随着男孩偏好与女孩偏好的弱化趋于同步,出生性别比也会恢复正常。The sex ratio at birth is a basic indicator of gender equality at the beginning of life.Since the mid-1980 s,China's sex ratio at birth has deviated from the normal value,and this has become more marked over time.Since 2008,the trend has been downwards,but it has still not returned to the normal range.Preference for boys is commonly considered to be a contributing factor in sex ratio at birth,but our crosssectional meta-analysis of 152 surveys shows that in the last four decades there has been a marked decline in such preference;the ideal number of boys per family fell from 0.6 in 1979-1989 to 0.4 in 2010-2017,while boys as a proportion of the ideal number of children fell from 34.5 percent to 27.9 percent.This was accompanied by a weakening of preference for girls.The whole social atmosphere is shifting toward absence of gender preference.The influence of the gender preference to the sex ratio at birth lies in the different speed of the weakening of preference for boys and that for girls,thus brings about "a change in relative values." When the speed of the weakening of preference for boys lags behind that for girls,we will witness the weakening of preference for boys and the rise in the sex ratio at birth.As the speed of the weakening of preference for boys keeps up with that for girls,the sex ratio at birth will reach a balance.

关 键 词：出生性别比 男孩偏好 相对数变动效应 横断历史元分析 

分 类 号：C913[经济管理]