基于Probit-ISM模型的农户林农复合经营行为影响因素分析  

Influencing Factors of Farmers' Behavior of Agroforestry Based on Probit-ISM Model

作　　者：周玉新[1] 周健芝 戴迎春[1] Zhou Yuxin;Zhou Jianzhi;Dai Yingchun(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2018年第30期153-159,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：江苏省林业三新工程项目"杨树干形调控修枝技术研究与示范推广"(LYSX[2016]48);江苏省科技支撑计划项目"苏北杨农复合经营模式的优化选择与示范推广"(BE2014404);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：基于苏北27个村302户林农的调研数据,利用Probit模型和ISM模型,分别探究农户林农复合经营行为的影响因素及各因素间的关联性及层级结构。研究结果表明:户主的年龄、性别、家庭人口规模和对农林业相关政策的了解程度在5%水平上显著;户主的学历水平、家庭年收入、林地面积、是否加入合作社、是否有农技推广站和贷款意愿在1%水平上显著。其中,家庭年收入、是否有农技站和贷款经营意愿是表层直接因素,林地面积和对相关政策的了解程度是中层间接因素,家庭人口规模、户主的学历水平和是否加入合作社是深层根源因素。Based on the survey data of 302 households from 27 villages in northern Jiangsu, we used theProbit-ISM model to explore the influencing factors on farmers＇ behavior of agroforestry and their relevanceand hierarchies. The results indicated that the age and gender of household heads, family members and theunderstanding of relevant policies were significantly at the level of 5%; educational level, annual income,woodland area, participating in farmer cooperatives or not, having support from local agricultural technologypromotion stations or not and the willingness to loan were significantly at the level of 1%. Among these, annualincome, having support from local agricultural technology promotion stations or not and the willingness to loanwere the surface direct factors; woodland area and the understanding of relevant policies were the intermediateindirect factors; family members, educational level and participating in farmer cooperatives or not were thedeep roots of factors.

关 键 词：林农复合经营 Probit-ISM模型 农户 影响因素 农业技术推广 

分 类 号：F326.27[经济管理—产业经济]