灰色线性回归组合模型在中国出境旅游规模预测中的应用  

Application of Grey Linear Regression Composite Model in the Prediction of China's Outbound Tourist Scale

作　　者：胡贝贝 王莉 汪德根[2] HU Beibei1, WANG Lin1, WANG Degen2(1. School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China; 2. School of Architecture, Suzhou University, Suzhou 215123, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241000 [2]苏州大学建筑学院,江苏苏州215123

出　　处：《安徽农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第6期56-62,共7页Journal of Anhui Agricultural University:SOC.SCI.

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"高铁背景下区域旅游空间格局变化特征及影响机理研究"(41271134)

摘　　要：当前,中国出境旅游呈"井喷式"增长现象,已成为世界最大的客源输出国,极大提升了中国对世界旅游业影响力。合理预测中国出境旅游市场规模,将对世界旅游业发展及中国旅游产业优化升级具有战略性指导意义。基于线性回归和灰色模型提出灰色线性回归组合预测模型,并对2017—2025年中国出境旅游客流规模进行预测和分析。结果显示:灰色线性回归组合预测模型的拟合度和精度要优于线性回归预测模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,表明组合预测模型能够弥补单一模型预测精度不够的缺点,提高预测的精密性和科学性;中国出境旅游客流在2017—2025年内将继续保持高速增长趋势,年均增幅为21%,至2025年,出境旅游总人数将达6.2亿人次。At present, China＇s outbound tourism is undergoing a ＂blowout＂ growth, and China has become the world＇s largest source of outbound tourists, which greatly improves its influence on world tourism. ＂To get a reasonable prediction of market scale of China＇s outbound tourism is strategically significant for world tourist industry＇s development and China＇s tourist industry＇s optimization and upgrading. Based on the linear regression and Grey model, this paper puts forward the linear regression composite model, and predicts and analyzes with the model China＇s outbound tourist scale from 2017 to 2025. The results show that： the model is better than the linear regression predicting model and Grey predicting model GM （1, 1） in degree of fitting and accuracy, which indicates that the composite model can make up for single model＇s deficiency in accuracy and improve predicting scientifieity; China＇s outbound toutists will maintain a rapid growth from 2017 to 2025, with an average annual increase of 21% and the number of outbound tourists reaching to 0.62 billion in 2025.

关 键 词：出境旅游 灰色回归组合模型 规模预测 中国 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]