基于组合赋权的模糊熵与灰色聚类-SPA水资源短缺风险二维综合评判模型及应用  

Two-Dimensional Coupling Model of Water Shortage Risk Comprehensive Evaluation Based on Entropy Theory and Set Pair Analysis-Grey Clustering with Combination Weighting

作　　者：杨哲[1] 杨侃[1] YANG Zhe;YANG Kan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2018年第10期39-43,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：云南省水利厅科技项目;国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB417006);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC56B03)

摘　　要：水资源短缺风险评价存在诸多不确定因素,而传统灰色聚类评价法忽视了这一因素,且根据聚类系数最大原则确定评价等级降低了结果的可靠性。为此引入集对分析SPA理论,建立联系度分量与聚类系数的耦合关系,以兼顾评价中的确定性与不确定性信息;同时选用指数型白化函数,运用最小偏差组合赋权法确定各指标权重。此外,将模糊熵理论作为第二维评价体系来表征短缺风险的复杂度,建立基于组合赋权的模糊熵与灰色聚类-SPA二维综合评判模型,并应用于水资源短缺风险评价。评价结果与传统单一等级评价模式相比,可从等级与复杂度两个维度揭示短缺风险程度,更加直观合理,为相关评价研究提供了新思路。The conventional grey clustering evaluation method ignores many uncertain factors existed in the risk assessment of water shortage.Besides,the comprehensive evaluation based maximum degree principle impairs the reliability of evaluation results.For this purpose,we introduce the set pair analysis model which established coupling relation between contact degree components and clustering coefficient to reflect deterministic and uncertain information.Furthermore,the exponential grey clustering whiten function is adopted and index weight is determined based on minimum deviation principle.Moreover,the fuzzy entropy theory is developed as the second dimension evaluation system that reflects complexity of water resources scarcity risk.Finally,two-dimensional comprehensive evaluation model based entropy theory,set pair analysis and grey clustering is applied to the water shortage risk evaluation.The results can reveal fuzzy complexity of the extent of shortage risk from two aspects of level and complexity compared with single-level evaluation method.Therefore,evaluation results are more intuitive and reasonable,which provides a new feasible way to conduct relevant assessment research.

关 键 词：水资源短缺风险评价 集对分析理论 指数型白化函数 模糊熵与灰色聚类-SPA二维综合评判模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]