参加农业保险能优化要素配置吗?——农户投保行为内生化的生产效应分析  

Does Participation inAgricultural Insurance Optimize FactorAllocation?An Analysis of Endogenous Farmers' Insurance Decision-making and Its Effect on Production

作　　者：张哲晰[1] 穆月英[1] 侯玲玲 Zhang Zhexi;Mu Yueying;Hou Lingling

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]北京大学现代农学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2018年第10期53-70,共18页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<空间均衡视角下蔬菜跨区域供给;地区结构及供给效应研究>(项目号:71773121);现代农业产业技术体系北京市果类蔬菜产业创新团队项目(项目号:BAIC01-2018);国家重点研发计划项目<粮食作物丰产增效资源配置机理与种植模式优化--粮食主产区作物种植模式资源效率与生态经济评价>(项目号:2016YFD0300210)的资助

摘　　要：本文基于黄淮海与环渤海设施蔬菜优势产区蔬菜专业村农户调查数据,在对农户农业保险投保决策机理及其生产效应进行理论分析的基础上,运用内生转换模型就农户投保对化肥投入、生产效率及家庭收入的影响进行了检验。结果表明:种植经验丰富,生产经营专业化,偏好风险将降低农户的投保概率,经历过灾害影响则会提高农户投保概率;投保后农户亩均化肥投入有所下降,并结合其他要素投入调整的共同作用降低单位面积产出,但投保引致的技术储备增加是稳定作物单产的重要力量;此外,生产风险分散所带来的农户被保险作物品种面积增加能够弥补单位面积产出下降对收入造成的抑制效应,有利于提高农户收入;保险也具有马太效应,种植规模越大的农户,投保所产生的收入提升效果越好。据此,应继续加强与完善农业保险,推动保险公平;发挥农业新型经营主体的引领示范作用;提高农业社会化服务体系建设水平。Based on household survey data from specialized vegetable production villages in the main vegetable production areas of Huang-Huai-Hai and Bohai Rim, this article discusses farmers＇ decision-making mechanism of agricultural insurance purchase and its effect on production. The study uses an endogenous switching regression model to test the allocation of resources, production efficiency and family income changes caused by agricultural insurance. Abundant plantation experience, specialization in production and preference for risk taking can reduce the probability of participating in the insurance, while prior disaster experience can increase the probability. The insured farmers tend to reduce the input of fertilizer. Simultaneously, the output also appears to decrease because of the adjustment of other production resources. However, the increase in technical reserves induced by insurance purchase is an important force for stabilizing crop yields. Besides, the diversification of production risks can increase farmers＇ acreage and make up for the impact of the declining output on income, which is beneficial to raising farmers＇ income. It is noteworthy that farmers＇ family income has a ＂Matthew Effecf＇, where the larger the scale of insured farmers, the more benefit they gain from agricultural insurance. Based on the results, the study proposes to continue to strengthen and improve agricultural insurance policies, promote insurance fairness, encourage new agricultural business entities to play an exemplary role, and enhance the level of agricultural social service provision.

关 键 词：蔬菜保险 化肥投入 生产效率 农民收入 内生转换模型 

分 类 号：F325[经济管理—产业经济]