高房价降低了中国工业企业TFP吗——基于要素成本视角的研究  

Does High Housing Price Reduce Chinese Industrial Enterprise TFP:A Study Based on Factor Cost Perspective

作　　者：董珍 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学统计系 [2]河北工业大学

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2018年第10期35-52,共18页Macroeconomics

摘　　要：本文以2003年国务院18号文件的颁布作为房价高增长的一次准自然实验，选取房价增长过快的城市为实验组，进而匹配1998_2013年中国工业企业数据库，在理论分析基础上，从企业要素成本视角实证考察了高房价对中国工业企业TFP的影响。研究结论表明：高房价显著抑制了企业TFP增长，且这一影响主要是通过降低企业融资成本和推高企业劳动力成本产生的。其中，融资成本降低激励了企业投资房地产及其相关行业，对实体经济产生挤出效应，从而抑制了整体企业TFP增长；而劳动力成本机制主要是降低了企业技术溢出从而降低了TFP，且房价上涨对劳动力成本的影响较融资成本大。时间趋势研究表明，高房价对企业TFP的抑制作用随着时间增强，同时，要素成本机制的作用也随时间强化。异质性研究发现，在宏观层面，高房价显著降低了中、东部地区和二线城市企业TFP；在微观层面，不同规模企业TFP均不同程度降低，高房价对资本密集度高企业的TFP抑制作用更强，具有政治关联的企业TFP下降更严重，出口与非出口企业TFP增长均受到高房价负面影响，高房价对国有企业和民营企业TFP抑制作用显著。通过对不同制造业行业进行研究发现，与房地产相关性更高的行业TFP下降更严重。因此，必须遏制房价过快上涨，转变经济增长结构和方式，提高实体经济全要素增长能力；同时要加快推进供给侧改革，着重降低实体经济的要素成本。This paper takes the document No. 18 issued by the State Council of China in 2003 as a quasi - natural experiment of high housing price growth and on the basis of the theoretical analysis, empirically examines the influence of high housing price on TFP of Chinese industrial enterprises from the perspective of the enterprises, factor cost, selecting the cities with excessive housing price growth as the experimental group, matching the China Industry Business Performance Data （1998 -2013 ）. The research shows that the high housing price significantly inhibits the growth of TFP of enterprises, and the effect is mainly caused by reducing financing costs of enterprises and pushing up the labor costs of enterprises. Among them, the reduction of financing costs stimulates enterprises to invest in real estate and related industries, which has a crowding - out effect on the real economy, thus inhibits the growth of overall TFP; Meanwhile, the labor costs mechanism mainly reduces the technology spillover of enterprises and then reduces the TFP, and the effect of high housing price on labor costs is greater than that on financing costs. The study of time trend shows that the inhibitory effect of high housing price to TFP increases over time, and the role of factor cost mechanisms is also strengthened over time. The heterogeneity research finds that at the macro level, high housing price significantly reduces TFP in middle and east- ern regions and second -tier urban enterprises; At the micro level, TFP of enterprises with different scale is reduced to varying degrees, high housing price has a stronger effect on TFP of enterprises with higher capital intensity, the decline of TFP in politically related enterprises is more serious, TFP growth in both export and non -export enterprises is negatively affected by high housing prices, high housing- price has a more significant inhibitory effect on TFP of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises. Through research on different manufacturing industries, it is found that

关 键 词：高房价 劳动力成本 融资成本 全要素生产率 倍差法 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F425