中国区域技术创新的二氧化碳减排效应——基于宏观计量经济模型模拟分析  

Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Regional Technological Innovation in China:Based on Regional-macro Econometric Simulation Analysis

作　　者：孙建[1] Sun Jian(Research Center of Economy of the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River,Chongqing Technology and Business University，Chongqing 400067，China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆400067

出　　处：《技术经济》2018年第10期107-116,共10页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心"长江上游地区创新创业与区域经济发展团队"(CJSYTD201706);国家社会科学基金项目"中国区域技术创新碳减排效应及优化政策研究"(13BJY024)

摘　　要：构建了区域-宏观计量经济模型,将区域技术创新活动与国家宏观经济活动相联系,评估区域技术创新活动的宏观效应。研究发现:东、中、西部三大区域研发投入同等幅度的增加都会抑制二氧化碳排放量和二氧化碳强度的增加,都能促进经济增长、降低单位GDP能源消耗、抑制工业废水排放,但对工业固体废物和工业二氧化硫的抑制作用在后期才得以体现;八大区域中,除东北地区以外,研发投入的增加对碳排放的影响趋势与三大区域基本相似。要实现2015年巴黎世界气候大会上我国政府承诺的二氧化碳减排目标,情景分析表明:资源税相对于基准情景呈先降低后增加趋势,其中2028—2030年期间年均增加1.22%~1.61%;排污费则呈现先降低后增加的趋势。By establishing the regional knowledge production function, measuring the nation's technological innovation stock knowledge, and constructing the regional macro-econometric evaluation model,this paper links the regional technological innovation activities with national macroeconomic activities to assess the macro effect of regional technological innovation activities to the national carbon dioxide emissions. Research findings shows that increasing in R&D investment in the three regions of East,Central and West will both suppress carbon dioxide emissions and C〇2 intensity,and also promote economic growth,reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP,curb industrial wastewater discharge?but the inhibition on industrial solid waste and industrial sulphur dioxide is demonstrated in the later period. In addition to the Northeast region,the impact of R&D investment on carbon emission in the eight regions is similar to that of the three regions basically. To achieve the target of C〇2 emission reduction that promised by the Government of China at 2015 Climate Conference in Paris, the Scenario analysis shows that the resource tax shows a trend of first decrease after the baseline scenario, with an average annual increase of 1. 22% ?1. 61% from 2028 to 2030； the sewage charge shows decrease firstly, then with an average increase of 0. 47% to 0. 62% from 2028 to 2030；energy price is higher than the benchmark scenario,and the average annual growth rate is in the range of 3. 45% to 4. 52%. According to the scenario analysis category,the extrapolation method is used to propose the key combination of future CO2 emission reduction policies in China.

关 键 词：区域技术创新 碳减排效应 宏观计量经济模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F127