中国经济增长对煤炭的依赖及其分解分析  

Dependence of China's economic growth on coal and its decomposition analysis

作　　者：张磊[1] 郭峰 Zhang Lei;Guo Feng(School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏省徐州市221116

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2018年第11期5-11,共7页China Coal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71874187);国家自然科学基金项目(71373261)

摘　　要：中国经济增长对煤炭的依赖程度以及影响依赖程度变化的因素备受关注,在细致分析上述依赖关系的基础上,定义了一个衡量此依赖程度的依赖值,根据LMDI方法的原理,将依赖值的影响因素分解为煤炭消费弹性效应和煤炭强度效应。分析得出1978-2016年,煤炭消费弹性效应贡献大于煤炭强度效应,同时两个效应均显著影响依赖值的变化,并提出了依赖值的变化路径,为相关部门的决策支持提供参考。The dependency of China＇s economic growth on coal and the factors affecting this dependency have attracted much attention. Based on the detailed analysis of the above dependency relationship, a dependency ratio was defined to measure this dependency degree. According to the principle of LMDI method, the influence factors of dependency ratio were decomposed into coal consumption elasticity effect and coal intensity effect. The results showed that the contribution of coal consumption elasticity effect was greater than the coal intensity effect between 1978 and 2016, and the effects significantly affected the change of the dependency ratio. The change path of the dependency ratio was then proposed, which provided reference for the decision-makers.

关 键 词：依赖关系 LMDI 煤炭消费弹性效应 煤炭强度效应 

分 类 号：TD-9[矿业工程]