基于可拓联系云模型的隧道塌方风险等级评价方法  

Evaluation method on risk grade of tunnel collapse based on extension connection cloud model

作　　者：关晓吉[1] GUAN Xiaoji(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shandong Technology and Business University,Yantai Shandong 264000,China)

机构地区：[1]山东工商学院管理科学与工程学院,山东烟台264000

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2018年第11期186-192,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：山东高校煤炭产业发展与创新研究基地项目

摘　　要：为准确预测隧道塌方风险等级,基于塌方相关理论和工程实际,建立塌方风险等级评价因子体系,借助云理论中云雾化现象检验采用综合权重方法确定的评价因子权重,利用物元可拓理论与联系云模型实现评价因子定性与定量之间的转换,提出1种基于可拓联系云的隧道塌方风险等级评价方法。计算待评价物元与联系云模型间的综合确定度,结合模糊等级特征值确定塌方风险等级,并引入距离相似性判断风险的演变趋势。研究结果表明:可拓联系云模型评价结果与实际塌方风险等级一致,模型可以较好地适用于隧道塌方风险等级评价。To predict the risk grade of tunnel collapse accurately, an evaluation factors system for risk grade of collapse was built based on the relative theory of collapse and engineering practice. The weights of evaluation factors were determined by using the comprehensive weight method and tested by using the cloud atomization phenomenon in the cloud theory. With the aid of matter element extension theory and connection cloud model, the transformation between the qualitative evaluation fac- tors and quantitative evaluation factors was realized, then an evaluation method for risk grade of tunnel collapse based on the extension connection cloud model was proposed. The comprehensive certainty between the matter element to be evaluated and the connection cloud model was calculated, and the risk grade of collapse was determined combining with the characteristic values of fuzzy grade, then the evolution trend of risk was judged by introducing into the distance similarity. The results showed that the evaluation results of the extension connection cloud model were consistent with the risk grade of practical col- lapse, and the model can be better applied in the risk grade evaluation of tunnel collapse.

关 键 词：隧道塌方风险 联系云模型 物元可拓方法 云雾化 距离相似性 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]