固体推进剂捏合工序燃爆事故的模糊事故树分析  

Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis of Blast Accidents in Kneading Process of Solid Propellants

作　　者：钱辉 杨森 刘小琴[2] 何中其[2] 彭琪琪 QIAN Hui;YANG Sen;LIU Xiaoqin;HE Zhongqi;PENG Qiqi(Jiangsu Quality Supervision and Inspection Center for Special Type Products of Safety Protecting,Taizhou 225300,China;School of Cherrzical Engineering,Nanj ing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China;Institute of Applied Physics and Cherrzistr y in Shanxi Province,Xi＇an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省特种安全防护产品质量监督检验中心,江苏泰州225300 [2]南京理工大学化工学院,江苏南京210094 [3]陕西应用物理化学研究所,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2018年第6期127-131,138,共6页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：为更精确地评估固体推进剂在捏合工艺过程中存在的风险,通过引入模糊集理论,将三角模糊数与事故树分析相结合即形成模糊事故树分析法,实现了固体推进剂捏合工序燃爆事故风险的定量分析,并通过模糊事故树分析法实例的应用,验证了该方法的有效性和可靠性。结果表明:相对于经典事故树分析法而言,模糊事故树分析法通过计算各基本事件的失效概率,用模糊概率代替基本事件的发生概率,并依据各基本事件模糊概率的大小进行排序,可快速、准确地识别危险因素并加以防控,可为固体推进剂捏合工艺的风险评价提供理论计算参考。triangle sis meth ties the using th culating .-In order to evaluate the fuzzy number with the a od,this paper realize validity and reliabilit e fuzzy fault tree can and sortingthe fuzzy s th y.T risk of solid propellants in the kneading process accurately,combining the ccident tree analysis by fuzzy set theory to form the fuzzy fault tree analy e quantitative analysis of blast accidents of the solid propellants and veri he results show that compared with the classical fault tree, the method of ccurately by cal retical calculation reference for the risk assessment of the kneading process of solid propellants.

关 键 词：固体推进剂 捏合工序 燃爆事故 模糊事故树分析法 模糊概率 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学] V512[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]