基于单系统估计量的人口普查内容误差估计  

Estimation of Census Content Error Based on Single System Estimator

作　　者：胡桂华[1,2] 杜艾卿 HU Gui-hua;DU Ai-qing(School of Math and Statistics,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;Population Centre,Minnesota University,Minneapolis MN55455,The United States)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,重庆400067 [2]明尼苏达大学人口中心,明尼阿波利斯明尼苏达州55455

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2018年第6期951-963,共13页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：2016年重庆市社会科学规划重大委托项目(2016WT03);2017年重庆高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(17SKG088);国家社会科学基金项目(15BTJ011);全国统计科学研究重点项目(2016LZ29);国家自然科学基金面上项目(11471239);重庆工商大学2017年度科研平台开放课题(KFJJ2017067)

摘　　要：针对目前发达国家在人口普查质量评估中忽视内容误差和发展中国家未正确估计内容误差这一问题,提出用单系统估计量估计各类别实际人数,并据此估计人口普查内容误差的研究目标。采用文献解读、抽样设计与估计及现场数据采集方法实现上述目标。研究内容主要包括依据样本普查小区的质量评估调查人口登记名单构造的单系统估计量及其基于刀切法的抽样方差估计量。创新之处在于,在对现有内容误差估计方法深入研究的基础上,首次明确提出人口普查内容误差其实就是类别实际人数与该类别普查登记人数之差。实证结果表明,单系统估计量适合于内容误差估计,估计精度高。建议我国在2020年人口普查质量评估中应用单系统估计量完成内容误差估计任务。未来需要进一步研究的问题是,比较单系统估计量、双系统估计量及三系统估计量在估计类别实际人数中的相对优势。Aiming at the fact that the developed countries ignore the content error and developing countries estimate it incorrectly in the census quality evaluation, this paper proposes the goal, which uses the single system estimator to estimate the true population count of each category, and estimates the content error by it. These goals are achieved through literature review, sampling design and estimation, and field data collection. The main contents of this paper involve the single system estimator constructed by census quality evaluation survey registration list in sample census area and its sampling variance es- timator based on Jackknife method. The innovation is that, based on a thorough study of the existing methods of content error estimation, it is the first time that the error of census content is actually the difference between the actual number of a category and the number of registered people in the category.The empirical results show that the single system estimator is suitable for content error estimation, and the estimation accuracy is high. It is suggested that a single system estimator can be used to complete the task of content error estilnation in the quality assessment of the 2020 census in our country. Further study is needed to compare the relative advantages of single system estimators, dual system estimator, and tripe system estimator in estimating the true number of people in each category.

关 键 词：人口普查质量评估 内容误差 二重抽样 复制权数 抽样方差 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]