企业家和消费者信心对经济增长的影响研究——基于对企业家信心指数和消费者信心指数的分析  

The effects of entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidenceon economic growth in China——Based on the analysis of entrepreneur confidence index and consumer confidence index

作　　者：张亚青 崔亚蕾 孙仁金[2] 

机构地区：[1]中体彩科技发展有限公司 [2]中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2018年第10期77-80,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“非常规油气开发利用对国家能源安全和社会经济的影响”(13&ZD159);国家社会科学基金项目“我国能源价格市场化改革问题研究”(17BGL014);国家自然科学基金项目“中国天然气安全预警与应急系统研究”(71273277)

摘　　要：理顺企业家信心、消费者信心和经济增长之间关系,对提振企业家和消费者信心、推动中国经济平稳性增长至关重要。鉴于此,以2005年第一季度至2018年第二季度数据为样本,采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型实证检验了中国企业家信心、消费者信心和经济增长之间的短期和长期动态关系。研究结果表明：无论是长期还是短期,企业家信心及消费者信心对中国经济增长都具有显著的正效应,且为单向的,特别是在长期中影响系数更为明显。比较来看,在短期内,企业家信心对中国经济增长的助推效应更为明显;长期看,消费者信心对中国经济增长的影响更为明显。To increase entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidence and promote economic development, investigating the relationship among entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence, and economic growth in China is crucial. For this purpose, by employing the autoregressive distributed lag（ARDL） model and the data sample covering 2005 q1-2018 q2, the long-and short-term linkages among entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence, and economic growth in China are examined.Results can be summarized as follows. First, in both the long-run and the short-run, entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidence can promote the economic growth in China; their effects will increase over time. Second, the effect of entrepreneur confidence on economic growth in China, in the short run, is considerably higher than that of consumer confidence. However, the opposite result can be observed in the long run. Finally, considering the existing challenges in China＇s economy, several policy suggestions are highlighted not only for increasing entrepreneur confidence and consumer confidence,but also for promotin geconomic development.

关 键 词：企业家信心指数 消费者信心指数 经济增长 ARDL模型 

分 类 号：F272.91[经济管理—企业管理] F713.55[经济管理—国民经济]