“两权”抵押贷款对中国农村居民消费的影响——基于Johansen协整检验和误差修正模型的动态分析  

How Loans Backed by the "Two Entitles" Impact on Rural Resident Consumption in China——A Dynamic Research based on Co-Integration and Error-Correction Methodology

作　　者：丁毅 

机构地区：[1]吉林师范大学经法学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2018年第10期113-116,共4页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目《农地改革背景下的农村金融服务创新与风险控制研究》(16BJL037);吉林省社会科学基金项目《吉林农村金融服务乡村振兴的方式创新与风险控制研究》(2018JD64)

摘　　要：作为农村金融改革的重要工具,＂两权＂抵押贷款的实施效果直接体现在其对农村居民消费水平的影响上。本文采用我国291个试点县（市、区）面板数据,在生命周期-持久收入理论的基础上,使用Johansen协整检验和误差修正方法分析了农村土地承包经营权和住房财产权抵押贷款对农村居民消费的短期和长期影响。结果表明：＂两权＂抵押贷款对农村居民消费的短期影响带有明显的滞后性。通过财富-收入机制分析,其长期的正向影响十分显著,＂两权＂抵押贷款的增加对提高农村居民消费和生活水平的作用将越来越大。因此,本文建议应该提高＂两权＂抵押贷款价值评估的科学性和规范性;促进＂两权＂抵押贷款真正成为可用金融资产;积极推进＂两权＂抵押贷款等金融工具的认知度,发展＂两权＂抵押贷款证券化,从入口和出口为金融机构扩大农村金融规模、改善农村金融效率扫清障碍。Based on Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis, this paper exams effects of the ＂two entitles＂ on rural resident savings rate, by modeling savings rate via Johansen co-integration and error-correction methodology. Empirical results imply that there is stable relationship between ＂two entitles＂ and savings rate. For the long run, the ＂two entitles＂ negatively impact savings rate; for the short run, lagged effects positively on savings rate are proved. It is suggested that increase in ＂two entitles＂ assets will have important impacts on savings rate of rural residential in the long run, however, the short run results are restricted by low assets liquidity in rural land markets, rural residents＇ limited knowledge of ＂two entitles＂ deriving instruments, and etc.

关 键 词：“两权”抵押贷款 农村居民消费 农村居民储蓄率 农村土地承包经营权 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济] F832.4