基于G-H Copula的水库防洪安全计算方法研究  

Calculation Method for Reservoir Flood Control Based on G-H Copula

作　　者：范嘉炜 黄锦林[1,2] 袁明道[1,2] 马妍博[1,2] FAN Jia-wei1,2, HUANG Jin-lin1,2, YUAN Ming-dao1,2, MA Yan-bo1,2(1. Guangdong Research Iustitute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Guaugzhou 510635, China; 2. State and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Estuary Hydropower Technology, Guangzhou 510635, China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广州510635 [2]广东省水利水电科学研究院河口水利技术国家地方联合工程实验室,广州510635

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2018年第11期76-79,86,共5页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：广东省水利科技创新项目(2015-12;2014-09)

摘　　要：由于传统单变量法未考虑设计洪水特征值关联性的问题,以鹤地水库实测资料为例,构建基于G-H Copula函数的Q^W72峰量组合联合分布模型,推求了联合重现期下的两变量设计值组合,并将其应用于放大典型洪水过程线和水库调洪计算,对计算结果进行了比较分析。结果表明,在两变量设计方法下,最高库水位较单变量方法升高0.13~0.15 m;最大泄量增加30~60 m^3/s。结论认为,新方法在水库防洪安全设计中具有合理性和可行性,目前以单变量同频放大法推求的设计洪水过程线和相应调洪最高库水位较两变量方法偏低,基于多变量相关性下的设计洪水可以更全面地考虑整个洪水过程,更准确地反映水文事件的内在规律。In view of the problem of univariate distribution method which doesn＇t consider the correlation of flood characteristics,this paper takes the measured data of Hedi Reservoir as an example and constructs the joint distribution model of Q～W72 based on G-H Copula function.The design value combination of two variables based on the combined return period is deduced and used to calculate the design flood hydrograph and reservoir flood control.The calculation results are compared and analyzed.The result shows that the maximum water level is increased by 0.13～0.15 m under the two variable design method,and the maximum discharge has increased by 30～60 m3/s.Therefore,the rationality and feasibility of the new method in the design of flood control are demonstrated.It is pointed out that the design flood hydrograph and the water level of the corresponding flood are lower than that of the two variables.Design floods based on multivariate correlation can consider the entire flood process better and accurately reflect the internal law of hydrologic events.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 设计洪水过程线 防洪安全 峰量组合 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]