基于结构贝叶斯方程模型的航空维修差错人为因素分析  

Human Factors Analysis of Aviation Maintenance Errors Based on Structural Bayesian Equation Model

作　　者：车畅畅 王华伟[1] 倪晓梅 CHE Chang-chang;WANG Hua-wei;NI Xiao-mei(School of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 2I 1106,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106

出　　处：《人类工效学》2018年第5期11-16,24,共7页Chinese Journal of Ergonomics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71401073);国家自然科学基金和中国民航局联合资助项目(U1233115)

摘　　要：目的研究人为因素和对应航空维修差错原因的耦合关系,有效评估维修差错人为因素的相对影响,有重点的指导维修差错的管控。方法结合专家知识和对维修人员的调查建立数据集和航空维修差错人为因素路径图,构建了结构贝叶斯方程模型用于航空维修差错人为因素分析。结果通过结构方程模型求解和贝叶斯估计能够得出人为因素和对应航空维修差错原因的因子载荷,从而对其进行重要度分析,有针对性的进行维修人为因素管理和航空维修差错原因管控。结论对某航空公司进行实例分析得出,该模型能够得到较为准确的航空维修差错人为因素分析结果,得到主要的维修人为因素和对应的航空维修差错原因,从而在节约管理资源的基础上减少人为因素导致的维修差错。Objective To study the coupling relationship between human factors and the causes of aviation maintenance errors,to effectively evaluate the relative influence of artificial factors on maintenance errors,and to guide the management and control of maintenance errors. Methods Based on the expert knowledge and the investigation of the maintenance personnel,the data set and the artificial factor path map of the aviation maintenance error were set up,and the structural Bayesian equation model was constructed for the artificial factor analysis of the aviation maintenance error. Results By the structural equation model solution and Bias estimation,the factor load of human factors and the cause of aviation maintenance error can be obtained,so as to carry on the analysis of the importance of the factor,and to carry out the maintenance human factors management and the control of the cause of aviation maintenance error. Conclusion A case analysis of an airline shows that the model can get a more accurate result of the artificial factor analysis of aviation maintenance errors,get the main maintenance factors and the causes of the corresponding aviation maintenance errors,so as to reduce the maintenance error caused by human factors on the basis of saving management resources.

关 键 词：维修差错 人为因素 结构方程模型 贝叶斯估计 飞机 故障分析 民用航空 运输安全工程 

分 类 号：V267[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航制造工程]